CGC's Harvest Sample Report as of Oct. 16
The attached chart shows the percentage of the total samples graded by the Canadian Grain Commission's Harvest Quality Report as of Oct. 16, with the blue bars representing the percentage of the total samples that fall into each grade of Canada western spring wheat (CWRS) and Canada western amber durum (CWAD).
For example, as of Oct. 16, the percentage of total CWRS samples that fall into the top two grades is 82.1% of total samples graded (blue bars), up from 74.1% of the total samples falling into the top two grades which is found on the final report for 2018.
When looking at durum data, 55.3% of the durum samples graded falls into the top two grades as of Oct. 16, which compares to 84.7% of the samples found in the top two grades in the 2018 final report. When compared to 2018, current durum grade statistics points to a shift from No. 1 to all other grades (No. 2 to No. 5).
While not shown, the mean CWRS protein is reported at 13.8% for all Western Canada samples selected, which compares to the 2018 final of 13.6%. When considering only samples graded No. 1, the 2019 mean protein is 14.1% as compared to the 2018 final of 13.8%.
Now we see where the worst may be yet to come. The report stated that the results will likely exclude samples received during the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, roughly an estimated 91% of Manitoba's spring wheat was harvested, 44% of Saskatchewan's spring wheat was reported as harvested, along with 35% of Alberta's spring wheat. Crops have faced adverse weather across all three provinces since.
A total number of 2,152 samples of spring wheat and 458 samples of durum have been graded as of Oct. 16. This represents only 34.5% of the 6,230 samples of spring wheat graded in 2018 and 29.4% of the 1,556 samples of durum graded in 2018's final report.
When the spring wheat samples graded are considered by province, the 817 samples of Manitoba spring wheat samples represent 64% of the total number graded in 2018, Saskatchewan's 827 samples are 32.1% of the total number graded in 2018 and Alberta's 508 samples graded are just 21.3% of the total number graded in 2018.
It is also important to note that the CGC states that the "Number of Samples" data may not reflect the actual production distributions across grades.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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