Canada Markets

U.S. Spring Wheat Planting ahead of Average

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The most recent Crop Progress report in the United States shows that 42% of the spring wheat crop is seeded as of April 24 (blue line), below the 50% planted as of the same week last year (red line), but well-above the five-year average of 28% (green line).

As seen on the attached chart, this spring's planting pace of spring wheat in the United States is well ahead of the average pace, according to the weekly Crop Progress report, reporting data as of April 24. While the area planted is suggested to represent 42% of the intended area, below the 50% pace recorded the same week in 2015, it is well-ahead of the five-year average of 28%.

This is viewed as bearish for the market, with the crop viewed to get a good start making use of early spring moisture, while the early start to planting could also lead to an expanded acreage planted.

Looking back over the past five years, the fastest planting pace for spring wheat was seen in 2012, where planting was close to finished by May 20, while in 2015, planting was close to complete by the May 24 report. The final hard red spring wheat planted acres in those two years averaged roughly 400,000 acres more that estimated in the early Prospective Planting estimates for those years.

New-crop futures spreads finished steady to weaker Tuesday, with the Sept/Dec spread closing unchanged, while the Dec/Mar spread weakened 1 cent at minus 9 1/4, a weak spread and a sign of bearish commercial selling. The December HRS contract has consolidated for the second day, between support found at the contract's 20-day moving average at $5.54/bu and resistance at the contract's 200-day moving average at $5.61/bu.

Crop emergence is also on par with past years, with 8% of the spring crop emerged which is equal to last year and 1% ahead of the five-year average.

Other spring crops are also ahead of normal. Oats planted and emerged are ahead of average, while the same can be said about barley.


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