Canada Markets

A Look at Canada's 2015 Corn Yields

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green and yellow bars represent corn yields for 2014 and 2015 for the major producing provinces and Canada, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The purple line represents the percent of the 20-year trend in 2014, while the black line represents the percent of the 20-year trend achieved in 2015, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Statistics Canada's Dec. 4 production report estimated Canada's 2015 corn production at 13.559 million metric tons, 18% higher than 2014 and second only to the 14.194 mmt produced in 2013. This production level was a result of an increase in harvested acres in both Quebec and Ontario from 2014 levels while Manitoba's harvested acres were estimated to stay unchanged.

Yields were estimated higher across the three major producing provinces, with Quebec reaching a record 164.6 bushel per acre average, Ontario reaching a record 170.6 bpa average and Manitoba reaching its second-highest yield estimate of 126.5 bpa, slightly below the 128 bpa average recorded for 2013. Statistics Canada reports that genetically modified varieties account for 81.3% of Ontario's production along with 85.4% of Quebec's production.

The two lines with markers represent the stark contrast in yields from 2014 to 2015. Canada's 2014 average yield was reported at 98.3% of the 20-year trend from 1994-to-2013 at 149.2 bpa, as indicated by the lower purple line on the chart. Major producing provinces lagged their respective 20-year trends, with Quebec's average yield in 2014 at 95.2% of its 20-year trend while Ontario's average yield was at 99.8% of its 20-year trend. Manitoba's provincial average was 100.7% of its 20-year trend, calculated with Excel's trend analysis tools.

Compare this to the levels reached in 2015. Canada's overall yield of 164.7 bpa, according to Statistics Canada estimates, was 106.5% of its 20-year trend from 1995 to 2014. The three major producing provinces also achieved yields which were higher than trend, with Quebec at 113.8% of trend, Manitoba at 111.5% of trend and Ontario, by far the largest producing province, at 103.1% of trend.

Extrapolating this trend utilizing Excel's forecasting tools suggests yields could fall back to trend levels in 2016. Canada's yield would fall to 157 bpa on average, while Quebec's yield would fall to 146.4 bpa, Ontario's yield would fall to 168.3 bpa and Manitoba's yield would fall to 115 bpa.

DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think about Statistics Canada's recent estimate of 17.2 million metric tons for 2015 canola production. Do you believe it? You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's 360 poll found on the lower right of your DTN Home Page. We would like to thank all those for their past contributions to DTN polls.

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