Ag Weather Forum

Another Big Cold Burst Following Strong Cold Front This Weekend

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
Another burst of arctic air will spread through the country following a cold front this weekend. Peak anomalies of more than 30 degrees Fahrenheit below normal are going to be possible in some areas. (DTN graphic)

January 2025 has had an overall cold pattern in place for most areas east of the Rockies. That has led to some unusually high snowfall totals for the southern half of the country from a couple of systems early in the month.

One 6– to 12-inch band of snow fell across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri Jan. 4-6 and another 6– to 12-inch band fell across eastern Oklahoma, far northeast Texas, and central and northern Arkansas Jan. 9-10. Outside of the intense snow bands, snowfall near or exceeding 6 inches also fell in parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-South from both storms, respectively.

Some areas of the South have seen more snowfall than areas up north. Much of southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin are in a "snow hole" where much of the ground is either uncovered or with very little snow on the ground. The snow has led to very low temperatures in these areas following the snow. Temperatures down to minus 10 Fahrenheit were noted in northeast Kansas following the heavy snow, while lows down into the lower 10s F followed the farther south band this past weekend.

Mother Nature is building up to bring yet another big burst of cold air to the country, but this time, she's bringing it to more widespread areas beyond the snow-covered ones. If it can continue to hold on this week, the snow is certainly going to help to keep temperatures down once that burst comes through.

But first it will have to go through a few warmer days. Temperatures are low to start off the week, but a brief two- to three-day burst of above-normal temperatures will spread throughout the country east of the Rockies. That will help to melt off some of the snow, especially for those that were hit with the snow late last week across the south.

Those from Kansas eastward may not be warm enough for long to get rid of all of it, but may help to expose a little more ground ahead of a front that will quickly push through the country late this week and weekend.

The upper-level pattern will play a key role in this round of arctic cold. A ridge that has been persistent near the West Coast is going to allow a disturbance to roll over the top of it through Western Canada, but build up along the coast and force the disturbance down into the U.S. by the weekend.

At the same time, a cutoff low-pressure center in the Southwest will get ingested into it and the two will combine to form an immense trough in the middle of North America for next week. It will be slow to drift eastward throughout the week. The flow will be straight from the North Pole all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico by the time we hit early next week, allowing for a massive pool of cold, arctic air to spread through much of the continent.

Usually, the Rockies provide a good barrier to these arctic intrusions, guiding them east of the mountains. And for the coldest air, this will be true, but even the Rockies won't be able to contain the cold, and it should seep westward into the Intermountain region as well.

Overall temperatures look to be the lowest on Jan. 20, but will be colder in the Northern Plains a day earlier and the East a day or two later. Widespread anomalies of 20-30 degrees F below normal are expected for a couple of days and some peak areas that have fresh snow cover could see anomalies drop 40 degrees below normal. The last burst of arctic air failed to produce this drastic and widespread of anomalies, but the one coming up has better potential.

It could be aided by some fresh snow cover as well. The front that brings in the cold air may or may not develop a low-pressure center along it that would cover the Southern Plains through the Northeast Jan. 18-20. Models are still working that out. But it could lead to a zone of fresh snow for the Midwest or Mid-South into the Northeast that could bring those anomalies that follow down farther than the forecast.

The harsh cold will only last a few days, more likely in the two- to three-day time period. But the lower-than-normal temperatures are likely to ride out beyond that through the end of the week and could be reinforced by more cold air to close out January.

What is unusual is that these bursts of cold are coming without aid from the polar vortex. During the last several years, many of these cold bursts we have seen have been in large part due to a disturbance in the polar vortex, or the jet stream that circles the North Pole. When it gets disrupted, it often brings very cold air south, sometimes into North America, for extended periods of time. The month of January is going to be a cold one for many of us here in the U.S., but this time it will not be due to this feature.

This cold air is more shallow and not as long-lasting as polar vortex events can be. We're getting short, but intense bursts of cold lasting only a couple of days before temperatures moderate up closer to normal for a few days before getting hit again. Polar vortex events may last more than a week at a time without interruption.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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