Ag Weather Forum
Devastating California Wildfires Show a Link to Climate Change Extremes
The year 2025 was not even two weeks old when a billion-dollar climate and weather disaster happened. This time, it's the ongoing catastrophic wildfire event in Southern California. Fires began Jan. 7; since then, a combination of harsh dryness, low humidity and what are described as the strongest Santa Ana winds since 2011 have torched the Los Angeles area. According to CBS News in Los Angeles, the wildfires have killed at least 24 people, forced nearly 180,000 to evacuate, and destroyed or damaged more than 12,000 structures as of Jan. 13. Wind speeds reached 80 to 100 miles per hour during the Jan. 7-12 time frame.
Santa Ana winds -- which occur when very large air pressure differences east to west produce extremely dry and warm down sloping winds -- are part of the weather and climate scene in Southern California. However, these winds typically occur during the fall, not in winter. In addition, recent large swings in precipitation -- from very wet to bone-dry -- have played a big part in setting up this event as well. These big and relatively fast transitions produce what is termed "hydroclimate whiplash". In Southern California, heavy precipitation during the last two years enticed thick vegetation growth in the region. Then came dryness; since May 2024, Los Angeles County received only 0.16-inch precipitation. Plants dried up, and when the winds came, fire danger was heightened.
The California fire disaster has a tie-in to world climate patterns as well. NOAA's World Climate Assessment for 2024, released Jan. 10, noted that Earth had the warmest year on record going back to 1850 with surface temperatures 2.32 degrees Fahrenheit (1.29 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average. In addition, the heat content of the upper oceans was record high. In the oceans, the top 2,000 meters (about 6,600 feet) was record high in 2024. NOAA noted that the five highest values have all occurred in the last five years. Ocean heat records go back to 1958.
With the ocean heat, stronger and more resilient upper-air high pressure centers, which drive the harsh fire-creating winds, can develop. "These ocean heat waves are becoming stronger and larger because of heat trapped by increased human-generated greenhouse gases, so these persistent and unusual weather patterns will probably become more common," Woodwell Climate Research Center senior scientist Jennifer Francis told Bloomberg News on Jan. 7.
In the Midwest and Great Plains, it's tempting to look at the devastation in California as strictly a West Coast problem. After all, it's the desert. There's not much rain anyway. So, of course fires will happen. But the factors which led to the Los Angeles fires were out of bounds even for the far West -- and they have happened elsewhere as well. Just three years ago, on Dec. 15, 2021, a derecho tore through the central U.S. with incredibly intense winds, tornadoes and, yes -- fire damage in parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Lincoln, Nebraska, had a maximum wind speed of 93 mph. And just as in the California fires, extra vegetation growth from a mild fall with periods of rain meant more dry fuel to support fire development.
Total damage from the Los Angeles region firestorm is estimated to be at least $50 billion, as of Jan. 10. It's the most damaging wildfire event on record. Its total impact may reach far, both in area and time. And the pressure centers driving the Santa Ana winds are expected to last through much of this mid-January week.
The full NOAA 2024 Global Climate Assessment is available here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/…
Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com
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