Canada Markets

Canola diverged from losses realized in soybeans and soybean oil on Feb. 27 to close higher, despite Canadian dollar strength against the USD. Canola remains viewed as inexpensive relative to soybean oil, which may remain a supportive feature.

Canada's January canola crush was the third highest of the 2022-23 crop year, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach AAFC's current 9.5 mmt crush forecast.

The Canadian dollar broke below chart support on Feb. 22, which could lead to a continued move to December lows.

The most noticeable revision in AAFC's February supply and demand estimates was a sharp reduction in their forecast for Canada's flax exports in 2022-23, which could have significant implications for seeded acres in 2023.

Week 28 barley exports are shown to jump higher, while the cumulative volume moved is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current export forecast.

The weekly price of 2 CW oats reported by Saskatchewan is nearing a test of the harvest low, while there may be little to prevent a continued move lower.

This study looks at the trend in combined Canada-U.S. wheat stocks over time.

India's Second Advance Estimates show an expected record foodgrains crop for 2022-23, which includes record pulse production.

This study looks at the initial AAFC canola forecast for 2023-24 and looks at how ending stocks vary as yield and/or seeded acres change, leaving other assumptions constant.

Heightened uncertainty in the Black Sea region led to a sharply higher close in wheat futures, led by the Kansas City hard red winter wheat contracts.

A recent failed test of resistance led to a test of the lower end of a short-term range traded for March canola. Both the March/May and the May/July spreads closed in inverted territory on Thursday.

This study looks at Statistics Canada's December report on merchandise trade with a focus on ag commodities and products.

Statistics Canada released its Dec. 31 grain stocks estimates today, which were sharply higher that seen a year ago.

CGC's study looks at licensed deliveries of select crops into licensed facilities during the first half of the crop year, while calculating this volume as a percent of the total volume available for delivery, based on current government estimates.

The AMIS Market Monitor for February includes a higher revision for global wheat production, while ending stocks are forecast at 305 mmt, which exceeds the USDA's January estimate by a significant volume.

March oats reached their highest trade in more than 12 weeks on Feb. 1, although failed to close higher for a seventh session.

As of Jan. 24, commercial traders held a combined net-long position of SRW, HRW and HRS of 63,030 contracts, the largest held since July 2020.

March canola has extended its streak to four higher closes, with the Jan. 30 gain of $20.20/mt. Nervous short covering is seen contributing to this move.

Canada's wheat exports (excluding durum) continue to move at a pace that is ahead of the forecast pace, even as the forecast is steadily revised higher.

Durum bids have been under pressure so far this month, a move also mirrored in European bids.