Canada Markets

Malaysian crude palm oil closed lower for a third straight month, while EU legislation to prevent deforestation is forecast to have a detrimental effect on exporters.

The April canola crush fell from the previous month but remains the second-largest monthly volume achieved this crop year.

Spring seeding in Alberta is ahead of average as of the recent Crop Report, while emergence is well-ahead of average.

Commercial stocks of durum have tightened for a seventh consecutive week and are well-below average as of Week 42.

The spot Canadian dollar chart shows a double-top formed in the months of April and May, while current trade is near a test of the April low.

AAFC has updated their supply and demand forecasts for 2022-23 and 2023-24, incorporating official data from Statistics Canada. Stocks of principal field crops are forecast to increase year-over-year, although there remains significant differences in AAFC's wheat forecast...

July canola bounced from a fresh low to end back above $700/mt on Tuesday in high volume trade.

Barley exports tend to slow during the final weeks of the crop year, while Australia is making inroads into China and December corn closed under $5/bushel. The southern Albera market will play a greater role in price discovery during the year ahead.

During the week ending May 15, producers planted 29% of the province's crop, with the most progress seen on the west side of the province. An estimated 38% of the crop is seeded, still below the five-year average of 53%.

The USDA's first estimate for 2023-24 global soybean production shows a 410.585 million metric ton (mmt) crop grown world-wide, up 11% or 40.164 mmt from the previous crop year, as indicated by the brown line on the attached chart.

The July MGEX hard red spring wheat contract has closed higher for three consecutive sessions and has breached technical resistance in each of the past two sessions.

The USDA has forecast global wheat stocks to fall in 2023-24 for a fourth consecutive year, while the tendency is for the first estimate for any given crop year to be overstated.

Seasonality factors are contributing to the slowing demand for hopper cars for loading on the prairies, although one CN executive indicates this trend could continue through to new crop.

Canola stocks as of March 31 are up from the year-ago level but well-below average for a third year and signal problems due to the current pace of demand.

Statistics Canada released March 31 grain stocks estimates Tuesday, which included a revised methodology for estimating farm stocks.

Estimates for the area seeded in Alberta as of May 2 point to the slowest start since 2018.

The high for December hard red spring wheat on May 5 has tested the 50% retracement of the move from the April high to the May low. The latest week's CFTC data shows noncommercial traders adding to their bearish positions, although late-week trade points to a sudden change...

March Statistics Canada merchandise trade data points to an overall drop in exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products. Here we look at monthly trade data as it relates to miscellaneous crops and crop products.

The continuous December HRS-HRW spread is seen consolidating and is trading at a level that is below average for this date. A number of factors are at play, but an above-average Canadian spring wheat acreage forecast for 2023 may be easing concerns.

The CGC reported favourable durum exports for week 38, which were the highest in five weeks and the fifth highest seen this crop year.