Ag Weather Forum

Another big severe weather event is forecast for the Midwest for Wednesday, June 17. Two distinct rounds of severe weather are looking likely, which will lead to another all-hazards type of event throughout the day.

The event actually started during the overnight and early morning hours on Wednesday. A compact upper-air disturbance moved into the Upper Midwest and met with a return of hot and humid low-to-mid level air over Iowa where a cluster of thunderstorms has erupted early this morning. As of 8 a.m. CDT, the cluster was crossing the border into northern Illinois. So far, a couple of hurricane-force wind reports have been noted in eastern Iowa. As the cluster continues southeast this morning across northern and central Illinois and possibly into central Indiana, a continuation of strong wind gusts appears very likely. More hurricane-force winds will be likely. A few embedded tornadoes will be possible as well.

The second severe weather event of the day is a little more conditional, but still very likely to occur. As the upper-level disturbance moves deeper into the Midwest, it will pull more hot and humid air northward. This will meet the system's cold front Wednesday afternoon from far eastern Kansas through northern Indiana, resulting in a broken line of supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. With supercells, all hazards are on the table, but they increase the likelihood of massive hail and strong, long-track tornadoes.

For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has marked an area of moderate severe weather on their outlook for this morning. The SPC only produces moderate risks of severe weather about a dozen times a year, making this event likely to be significant. What makes this a more conditional threat is the early thunderstorms that could use up a lot of energy. However, the SPC agrees with models that the influx of hot and humid air will be more than sufficient to produce intense supercell thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

The primary threats should diminish after sunset, but some stronger wind gusts may continue south into southern Missouri and along the Ohio River overnight. Additional strong thunderstorms may pop up behind this line across Iowa through southern Michigan, or ahead of the line in southeastern Michigan and western Ohio, with damaging wind gusts and maybe a couple of tornadoes possible as well.

The Midwest has been in the crosshairs for severe weather throughout the first half of July already. On June 10, severe weather was sufficient enough to declare a derecho across northern Illinois where several tornadoes were embedded within a line of thunderstorms that also produced hurricane-force wind gusts. The tornado threat was then magnified across Illinois and Indiana on June 11. Additional severe thunderstorms have rolled across the region since June 5. This is all a part of a busy weather pattern due to the building El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Rounds of severe weather will be likely throughout the summer.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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