Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.96, down 16 cents for the week. After extending its 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend the previous week to a high weekly close of $5.13, the SR.X quickly fell back. With weekly stochastics still above the overbought level of 80%, initial support on the weekly close-only chart is at $4.81. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend from $3.80 through the $5.13 high.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $5.23 1/4, down 19 3/4 cents for the week. After extending its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $5.54 last week, the contract quickly fell back. This test of resistance at $5.52 1/2 uncovered increased selling interest, with support now at the 4-week low of $4.86 1/4.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.09 down 19 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend the previous week to a new high weekly close of $5.29 before falling back last week. Initial support is now at the most recent low weekly close of $4.76.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.40 3/4, down 23 1/4 cents for the week. The contract posted a new high of $5.68 1/2 last week before falling to its lower weekly close. Confirmation of a reversal into a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend would be a move below the 4-week low of $5.02 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.89, down 43 cents for the week. Cash spring wheat looks to have established a quick reversal on its weekly close-only chart, following the previous week's new high weekly close of $6.33 with a new 4-week low weekly close last week. Next support is down at $5.62.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.12 3/4, down 36 cents for the week. The contract posted a bearish reversal on its weekly chart last week, signaling the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Support is now at the previous low of $5.88 1/4.

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