Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.87, up 20 cents for the week. The SR.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend on its weekly close-only chart with last week's rally looking to be Wave B (second wave). Look for subsequent weekly closes to be below the Wave 5 peak, high for the previous uptrend, of $4.94. The most recent secondary signal by weekly stochastics was a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of March 5.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $5.18 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents for the week. The contract still looks to be in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with last week's rally a potential Wave B (second wave) move. Resistance is at the high of the previous uptrend at $5.38 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.99 up 23 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only) chart with last week's rally looking to be Wave B (second wave). This will be confirmed it the HW.X holds below the previous high weekly close of $5.10, the subsequently moves below the Wave A low of $4.76.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.38 3/4, up 20 3/4 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close July KC wheat remains in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Last week's low of $5.20 1/2 was not only a test of support near $5.04 1/2, but also looks to be the Wave A (first wave) low. If so Wave B (second wave) should stay below the high of the previous 5-wave uptrend of $5.68 1/2 (week of April 30). Wave C would be expected to extend below the Wave A low, with next support down at $4.82 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.18, up 25 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat turned up last week with the SW.X posting a new 4-week high weekly close. Next resistance is at $6.26, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend fr4om $7.30 through the low of $5.62. Weekly stochastics are already nearing the overbought level of 80%, possibly limiting new buying interest.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.33 1/4, up 21 1/2 cents for the week. The contract posted a bullish outside range last week, signaling a strengthening secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart. Next resistance is at the 4-week high of $6.37, then the previous high of $6.47.

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