Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.10 lower at $69.35. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with this past week's high of $71.05 forming a double-top pattern with the previous high of $71.28. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $63.43.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.94 lower at $64.94. Similar to Brent crude, WTI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Last week's high of $66.55 looks to be the completion of a double-top pattern with the previous high of $66.66. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $59.95.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.26ct higher at $2.0210. Distillates remain in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the recent minor (short-term) uptrend looking to be Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave downtrend. The spot-month contract is testing resistance between $1.9937 and $2.0375, prices that mark the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement levels of Wave A from $2.1431 through the recent low of $1.8084.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 1.30cts lower at $2.0206. Despite the lower weekly close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week high of $2.0463 last week, pulling weekly stochastics farther above the overbought level of 80%. This leaves stochastics in position for a possible bearish crossover that would signal a possible change in secondary trend.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.3ct higher at $1.454. Despite the higher weekly close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Support is at $1.427, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.251 through the recent high of $1.535. The 50% retracement level is down at $1.393.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 14.2cts higher at $2.733. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned up as the spot-month contract posted a bullish outside range last week. Confirmation of an uptrend would be a move to a new 4-week high above $2.811. Weekly stochastics remain bearish below the oversold level of 20%.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.50cts lower at $0.6625. Despite the lower weekly close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, a pull back to test the recent low of $0.5850 would be a normal Wave 2 of the 5-wave uptrend.

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