Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source; DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.34, 1/2, down 19 3/4 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart with next support at $4.32. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.81 1/4 through the recent high of $4.63 1/2. Weekly stochastics have recently established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.85, down 20 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the sharp sell-off seen the last couple weeks the contract remains, technically, in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Support is at its 4-week low of $4.76 1/2. The contract's minor (short-term) trend remains down, meaning July Chicago could work lower again this coming week.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.56 1/2, down 17 1/2 cents for the week. Cash HRW recently moved into a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend following a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at $4.53 1/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.47 1/2 through the high near $4.86. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $4.33.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.16 1/2, down 20 3/4 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat recently moved into a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as weekly stochastics posted a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Last week saw the contract test initial support at $5.17 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.40 1/4 through the high of $5.65. The 50% retracement level is near $5.02 3/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.92 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Initial resistance is at the recent high weekly close of $5.98 3/4 with support the previous low weekly close of $5.85 1/2. Weekly stochastics would suggest a bullish breakout is likely.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.25 1/4, down 7 cents for the week. The contract looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-down trend. Last week's bearish close below the previous 4-week low of $6.25 would indicate an extended sell-off to test the previous low of $6.16 1/4.

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