Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $5.79 lower at $62.79. The market confirmed its move to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as the spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $61.77. Initial support is at $60.85, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $71.28, with next support at the 38.2% retracement level of $54.40.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $6.25 lower at $59.20. The market confirmed its move to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as the spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $58.07. Initial support is at $57.08, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $66.66. Next support is at the 38.2% retracement level of $51.15.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 19.84cts lower at $1.8551. The market extended its recently established secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, with the spot-month contract testing initial support at $1.8376 (last week's low was $1.8302). With pressure coming from both commercial and noncommercial traders, the market should soon fall to its 38.2% retracement level of $1.6486 and possibly the 50% retracement mark of $1.6486. The market is also nearing a bearish change in its major trend on the long-term monthly chart.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 17.18cts lower at $1.7002. The market extended its recently established secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the spot-month contract posting a new 4-week low of $1.6704. Initial major (long-term) support is at $1.7039 on its monthly chart, then near $1.55.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 6.0cts lower at $1.403. Despite the lower weekly close the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The nearby futures contract posted an inside price range last week, with another two lower weekly closes likely. The market's minor (short-term) trend has turned down with next support at $1.386, then $1.363.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 26.2cts lower at $2.584. The spot-month contract is moving toward previous support at $2.521. Weekly stochastics remain bearish meaning the market could extend this sell-off to next support at $2.173.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 7.88cts lower at $0.7000. Cash propane remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend, with this sell-off Wave C (third wave). Propane fell below support at $0.7004 last week, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.5275 through the high of $0.9800. The weekly low of $0.6575 was near the 76.4% retracement level of $0.6343. Weekly stochastics are at or below the oversold level of 20%.

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