Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.30 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents for the month. The monthly close-only chart shows the NCI near trendline resistance at $3.33, with resistance in February coming in at $3.31 1/4. The major (long-term) trend remains down while the NCI's secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end.

Corn (Futures): The March contract closed at $3.61 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents on the monthly chart. The market's major (long-term) trend remains down given the series of lower lows and lower highs (monthly close-only) dating back to September 2014. Initial support is at the December 2017 close of $3.50 3/4, then the October 2017 close of $3.45 3/4. The last major low monthly close was August 2016 at $3.15 1/2.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.27, up 42 cents for the month. The NSI's monthly close only chart continues to show consolidation between converging trendlines. Resistance in February is pegged at $9.16 with support at $8.77.

Soybeans (Futures): The March contract closed at $9.95 3/4, up 34 cents on the monthly chart. Similar to the NSI (DTN National Soybean Index, national average cash price), soybean futures continue to consolidate within converging trendlines. In this case it is Gann fan lines (red line 1x2, green line 1x8). After testing resistance in January soybean futures could be set to test support over the coming months.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.26 1/4, up 49 3/4 cents for the month. The HW.X remains in a major (long-term) uptrend on its monthly close-only chart, closing above resistance at $4.20 1/2. The next upside target is $5.05 1/4, a price that marks 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.64 1/4 (September 2012) through the low of $2.83 1/2 (August 2016).

HRW Wheat (Futures): The March Kansas City (HRW) contract closed at $4.67 1/4, up 40 cents for the month. HRW wheat's major (long-term) trend has turned up after futures posted a new 4-month high of $4.71 1/4 during January. Initial resistance is at $5.35 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $9.90 1/2 (February 2011) through the low of $3.95 (August 2016).

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