Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.99, up 4 1/2 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart with initial resistance pegged at $4.04. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.02 1/4 through the low of $3.44.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.55 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Initial resistance is at $4.77 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.09 1/2 through the contract low of $4.37. Beyond that the 33% retracement level is up at $4.94.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.87 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Next resistance is at $3.90 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4. The 50% retracement level is up at $4.06 1/2. However, weekly stochastics are nearing the overbought level of 80%.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.66 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with initial resistance near $4.83 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the recent contract low of $4.40 1/4. Beyond that resistance is pegged between $5.00 1/2 and $5.10, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.05 1/4, up 14 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Next resistance is at the high weekly close of $6.19 from the week of November 6.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.23, down 3/4 cent for the week. A long-range view of new-crop Minneapolis spring wheat shows the contract to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is projected to reach a low near $5.98. However, weekly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20%.

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