Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $63.57, up $2.20 on the monthly chart. The market's major (long-term) uptrend may be reaching a peak. Monthly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80% in position to post another bearish crossover (the previous one was at the end of March 2017), while the spot-month contract tests resistance at $65.80. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 through the low of $27.10.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $57.36, up $2.99 on the monthly chart. The market's major (long-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end. Monthly stochastics are approaching the overbought level of 80%, with the most recent signal a bearish crossover above this level at the end of March 2017. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $59.96, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 through the low of $26.05.

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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.9027, up 0.82ct on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end. Monthly stochastics are back above the overbought level of 80%, and with the futures market closing off its monthly high stochastics are in position to establish a bearish crossover during December. If the market does extend its uptrend next resistance is at $2.1094, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 through the low of $0.8487.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.7284, down 5.12 cents on the monthly chart. The general major (long-term) trend of the futures market remains up. However, the spot-month contract continues to find resistance below $1.8836. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.4789 through the low of $0.8975.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.343, down 8.7cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways-to-down. Support is at the double-bottom low near $1.292 with monthly stochastics nearing the oversold level of 20%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $3.034, up 13.8cts on the monthly chart. The market looks to be in a wide-ranging major (long-term) sideways trend with support at $2.521 and resistance at the December 2016 high of $3.994. Monthly stochastics remain neutral-to-bearish.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.9150, down 0.50ct on its monthly chart. Cash propane extended its major (long-term) uptrend in November, reaching a high of $0.9800. Resistance remains at $1.0126, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.4825 through the low of $0.2525.

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