Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.06, up 12 3/4 cents for the week. While the SR.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend, Wave A (first wave) looks to have come to an end with a test of support near $3.81 1/2. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous 5-wave uptrend from $3.44 through the high of $5.03. Given the continued bearishness of the market's fundamentals Wave B (second wave) could be limited to a test of resistance between $4.09 3/4 and $4.27 1/2.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.92 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents for the week. While the contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend, Wave A (first wave) looks to have come to an end with the low of $4.74 1/4 (week of August 28). Initial resistance for Wave B (second wave) is $5.06, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of Wave A from the high of $6.09 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.65, up 6 3/4 cents for the week. The market remains in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend though the recent low weekly close of 3.39 1/4 looks to be the end of Wave A (first wave). If so, and given the market's continued bearish fundamentals, Wave B (retracement wave) could be limited to resistance between $3.71 and $3.90 3/4, prices that mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement level of Wave A from $4.73 3/4 through $3.39 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.92 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents for the week. Similar to the other winter wheat markets new-crop Kansas City wheat's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. However, a Wave B (second wave of three) looks set to begin with initial resistance pegged at $5.07.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.71 1/4, 23 1/2 cents for the week. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support at $5.47 3/4. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend (weekly close-only) from $4.35 through the high of $7.30 1/4. A test of this level should take weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.30, down 3 1/4 cents for the week. New-crop Minneapolis spring wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, though consolidating in what looks to be a bearish pennant formation. If so then downtrend may have reached its midpoint. Support is at the recent low of $6.20.

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Comments

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DARIN NEWSOM
9/18/2017 | 10:37 AM CDT
Good morning. Based on its weekly chart, support for the July 2018 KC wheat contract is at the low of $4.71 1/4. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, a technical factor that could possibly limit selling interest. Thank you for your question.
farmom6
9/18/2017 | 9:28 AM CDT
Where does HRW new crop find support ?