Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.87 3/4 down 21 1/2 cents for the week. The SR.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, testing support near $3.18 1/4. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend (weekly close-only) from $3.44 through the high weekly close of $5.02 1/4. With weekly stochastics above the oversold level of 20%, the SR.X could see a minor (short-term) uptrend constituting Wave B (second wave) of a standard 3-wave downtrend.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.93, down 20 1/4 cents for the week. The contract remains in secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend with the sell-off from $6.09 1/2 through last week's low of $4.90 possibly making up Wave A (first wave). If the contract does rally, minor (short-term) resistance for Wave B would be between $5.17 1/s and $5.35.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.47 1/2, down 26 1/2 cents for the week. The market's remains in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with next support down at $3.31 1/4. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.89 3/4 through the high of $4.73 3/4. Cash HRW wheat could see a minor (short-term) uptrend develop that would be Wave B of this downtrend. Minor resistance is between $3.82 3/4 and $4.04 3/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.92 3/4, down 24 3/4 cents for the week. New-crop Kansas City wheat's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, though the contract did hold above its low of $4.88 1/2. The upside target is near $5.40 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous minor downtrend from $6.23 through last week's low of $4.89.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.26 1/2, down 5 cents for the week. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with next support at $6.17 1/2. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend (weekly close-only) from $4.35 through the high of $7.30 1/4. If last week's close was the Wave A (first wave) low, cash spring wheat could post a minor (short-term) Wave B uptrend to test resistance at $6.78 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Futures): The Minneapolis December 2017 contract closed at $6.82 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents for the week. Like the rest of the wheat complex, Minneapolis spring wheat futures remain in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend yet poised to move into a minor (short-term) uptrend. If so, and given its bullish commercial view indicated by the fractional inverse in the December 2017-to-March 2018 futures spread, the December contract could rally to at least $7.47 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the Wave A sell-off from $8.43 through last week's low of $6.52 1/2.

To track my thoughts on the marketthroughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .