Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.47 3/4, up 13 cents for the week. Despite the strong rally the NCI.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its weekly close-only chart. Resistance is at the previous high of $3.48 (week of June 5) and support the low of $3.19 1/4 (week of June 19). Despite last week's rally in the futures market, basis versus the September contract strengthened 1 1/2 cents to 44 3/4 (cents) under.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The September contract closed 11.50cts higher at $3.92 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. Resistance remains at the recent high of $3.99 1/4 and support the 4-week low of $3.64 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 12.75cts higher at $4.04 3/4. Dec corn posted conflicting technical signals including a bullish gap between the previous week's high of $3.93 3/4 and last week's low of $3.94 and a bearish double-top at $4.09. Neutral-to-bullish weekly stochastics combined with the contract's major (long-term) uptrend would suggest a bullish breakout next week, with major targets up at $4.30 1/4 and $4.47. The latter not only marks the 76.4% retracement level of the contract's previous major downtrend from $4.74 1/2 to $3.58 1/2, but would also fulfill the measured target of $4.44 arrived at by adding the range ($0.35) from the double-top through the interim low ($3.74) to the bullish break of the $4.09 mark.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.35 3/4, up 55 cents for the week. After establishing a 2-week reversal, the NSI.X left an impressive bullish price gap between the previous week's high of $8.80 3/4 and last week's low of $9.03 1/4. With cash soybeans' secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend strengthening, next resistance is near $9.43 3/4 then $9.76. These price mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $11.12 through the low of $8.40. The 61.8% retracement level is up at $10.18.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The August contract closed at $10.01, up 54 cents for the week. Similar to the NSI.X, August soybeans left a bullish price gap after establishing a 2-week reversal, confirming the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The August contract has already cleared resistance at $9.96 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of its previous downtrend from $10.88 through the low of $9.04 1/2. Next resistance is at $10.17 3/4 and $10.44 1/2, prices that mark the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement levels.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $10.15 1/2 up 60 3/4 cents for the week. Similar to cash and old-crop August, new-crop November left a bullish price gap after establishing a 2-week reversal, confirming the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up and strengthening. The Nov contract has cleared resistance at $10.10 3/4, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of its previous downtrend from $10.43 through the low of $9.07. Next resistance is at the previous high.

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Comments

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DARIN NEWSOM
7/17/2017 | 7:27 AM CDT
Good morning Virginia and my apologies for a slow reply. I visited with customer service and was reminded that yes, notifications are sent out by cell phone. Feel free to contact DTN through its 800 number (800-485-4000) to make sure all is in order for you to receive those. Thanks again for your question.
Frank Durbin
7/14/2017 | 8:37 PM CDT
After driving through South Dakota twice in July. I'm going to make a wild prediction. I have not driven through North Dakota. But if the drought is as bad or close to it is in SD. I would say the corn crop in both states is 50% lost. Many of the acres I saw will never recover even if it started raining today. The corn is cannibalizing itself just to survive. Even if it survives it won't be able to put on ears as we know it. And what little kernels it does produce won't be accepted by the elevator anyway. How many acres are in SD and ND? I suppose the other 50% could be average.
VIRGINIA DUELL
7/10/2017 | 10:05 AM CDT
Does DYN issue cell phone calls is and when ther is a change in marketing recommendations?