Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.80 lower at $48.15. The market's minor (short-term) trend looks to be nearing its end as daily stochastics are in single digits and nearing a bullish crossover. Last week saw the spot-month contract dip below support at $40.54, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $46.64 through the high of $54.67. Secondary (intermediate-term) support remains at $46.42 on the market's weekly chart. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.83 lower at $45.83. Wave C (third wave) of the market's minor (short-term) 3-wave downtrend looks to be nearing its end. The spot-month contract has started to consolidate near support at $45.70, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $43.76 though the high of $52.00. Daily stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% and in position to establish a bullish crossover. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20% with secondary (intermediate-term) support at $44.09.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.36cts lower at $1.4312. The market still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways-to-down trend with initial support at $1.4148. Weekly stochastics remain neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. However, the market's minor (short-term) trend looks poised to turn up as the spot-month contract holds near minor support at $1.4343. Daily stochastics are in single digits and in position for a bullish crossover.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 7.54cts lower at $1.5017. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-down on its weekly chart while its minor (short-term) trend is down. With weekly stochastics bearish above the oversold level of 20%, secondary support is pegged at $1.4373. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous intermediate-term uptrend from $0.9360 through the high of $1.7710. The 50% retracement level is downn at $1.3342.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.4ct lower at $1.550. The market looks to have rolled to a minor (short-term) downtrend last week following a bearish crossover by daily stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. However, the nearby contract has already rallied off an initial test of support at $1.523, setting the stage for a possible double-top near $1.580 before turning down again.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 4.0cts higher at $3.039. Despite a higher weekly close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $2.935 last with support still at the Wave A (first wave) low of $2.522. This is also a test of secondary retracement support at $2.521, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous secondary uptrend from $1.611 through the high of $3.994. A possible target for the Wave C (third wave) low is the 76.4% retracement level of $2.173.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.12cts lower at $0.5713. Cash propane's secondary (intermediate-term) trend now looks to be sideways between support at $0.5281 and resistance at $0.6537. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the oversold level of 20%, turning neutral and indicating a test of support is possible.

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