Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.09 higher at $52.05. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Initial support is at $50.99, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $58.37. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $46.42. Weekly stochastics are bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.29 lower at $49.33. Similar to Brent, WTI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Initial support is at $48.35, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $55.24. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $44.09. Weekly stochastics are bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.61cts lower at $1.5072. The market remains in a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Wave C could now target initial support at $1.4148, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647. Given weekly stochastics are above the oversold mark of 20% the spot-month contract could test the 50% retracement level of $1.3067.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 9.64cts lower at $1.5481. Gasoline continues to show a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its weekly bar chart. Secondary resistance remains at $1.7587 with support at $1.5179.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 6.6cts lower at $1.558. Despite another lower weekly close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However resistance at $1.681, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.76 through the low of $1.425, continues to hold. Weekly stochastics turned neutral meaning the market could see its minor (short-term) downtrend extend into a third week on daily charts. Daily stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, in position for a possible bullish crossover.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 17.5cts higher at $3.276. Last week's roll from the expiring May to June as the spot-month contract at a strong carry (contango) reflecting bearish fundamentals created a bullish outside range on weekly charts. However, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the market still in Wave C (third wave) of a 3-wave downtrend. Nat gas could see continued buying push the spot-month to a tests of resistance at $3.432 before turning down again. Thee minor (short-term) trend on daily charts remains up.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.57ct lower at $0.5818. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The recent 2-week sell-off looks to be Wave 2 of a 5-wave uptrend, bottoming out at last week's low of $0.5600, a test of the 76.4% retracement level of Wave 1 from $0.5275 through the peak of $0.6563. Wave 3 could see cash propane test the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend at $0.7188.

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