Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.65 higher at $55.89. While the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, its minor (short-term) trend also turned down last week. Initial support remains at $50.99, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $58.37. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $46.42.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.64 higher at $52.24. Similar to Brent, WTI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term). Last week saw its minor (short-term) trend also turn down. Secondary support remains at $48.35, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $55.24. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $44.09.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.11cts higher at $1.6495. The market's minor (short-term) trend turned down last week signaling the end of Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Wave C could now target initial support at $1.4597, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647. Given that Wave C is just beginning and weekly stochastics are near the 50% level, the spot-month contract could test the 50% retracement level of $1.3067.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 1.13cts lower at $1.7349. While gasoline is showing a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend on its standard weekly bar chart, the weekly close only shows a seasonal uptrend in place. The spot-month contract continues to test secondary resistance at $1.7587.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.2cts higher at $1.671. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as it posted a new 4-week high of $1.692. However, it was unable to close above resistance at $1.681, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.76 through the low of $1.425. Weekly stochastics are near the overbought level of 80%, but not in position for a bearish crossover yet.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 3.4cts lower at $3.227. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with the recent rally by the spot-month contract Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave move. The market is back below previous resistance at $3.258, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of Wave A from $3.994 through $2.522. Wave C (third wave) looks to be in its early stages.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.13cts higher at $0.6438. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, with cash propane testing initial resistance at $0.6537. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $0.9100 through the recent low of $0.5275. The 50% retracement level is up at $0.7188.

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