Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.04 higher at $55.49. Despite the slightly higher weekly close, weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Initial support is at the 4-week low, the previous week's low, of $53.38. Below that support is pegged at $50.99 and $46.42, prices that mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.85 higher at $53.22. Despite the higher close the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Weekly stochastics are bearish, still above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $50.71. Beyond that support is pegged at $48.35 and $44.09, prices that mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 0.55ct lower at $1.6459. The spot-month contract posted another new 4-week low of $1.6044 last week, again indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Initial support is at $1.5485, then $1.4148. These prices mark the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous secondary uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 4.57cts lower at $1.5660. The spot-month contract posted a bearish outside range last week, indicating the market's secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend continues to strengthen. Initial support is pegged at $1.5179, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8975 through the high of $1.7095. Next support is at the 38.2% retracement level of $1.3993.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.4cts higher at $1.490. Despite its higher close the market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Support is pegged at $1.465, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.296 through the high of $1.760. Weekly stochastics are bearish but approaching the oversold level of 20%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 21.5cts higher at $3.204. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with initial support pegged at $3.084. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.611 through the high of $3.994. Given the market's continued bearish weekly stochastics the spot-month contract should test the 50% retracement level of $2.803.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.25cts higher at $0.7313. The move to a new high of $0.7375 erased recent bearish signals and indicates the market's major (long-term) uptrend has trumped a potential secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Major resistance is pegged at $0.7224, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.4825 through the low of $0.2525.

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