Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.50, up 14 1/2 cents for the week. It remains difficult to get a good read on the secondary (intermediate-term) trend of the NCI.X. However, last week's strong rally saw cash corn post a new 4-week high indicating the secondary trend could now be considered sideways-to-up. The NCI.X is immediately testing resistance between $3.49 1/2 and $3.59 1/2, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed 16.25cts higher at $3.78 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend quickly turned up as the contract posted a new 4-week high. However May corn is immediately set to test initial resistance at $3.82 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.47 1/4. Beyond that is the 50% retracement level at $4.00 1/4.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.88 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents for the week. Despite the continued rally by the contract the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. However, a move to a new 4-week high above $3.90 would signal a new secondary uptrend. Weekly stochastics remain neutral-to-bullish.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.96, up 36 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend continues to strengthen, due in large part to support from the major (long-term) uptrend. However, weekly (secondary) stochastics show the NSI.X to be sharply overbought and vulnerable to a possible downturn.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed at $9.56, up 39 1/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, weekly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80% increasing the market's vulnerability to a downturn.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed at $9.66 1/2, up 35 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, with weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80% the contract is testing resistance between $9.55 and $9.70 1/4. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.18 1/2, down 3/4 cent for the week. Weekly stochastics now indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $4.38 with support still at the previous low near $4.02 1/2.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed at $4.67 1/2, up 3/4 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways between the recent high of $4.86 1/2 and the contract low of $4.49 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.92, down 2 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways though the HW.X posted a new 4-week low of $3.78 1/4. Resistance is at the recent high of $4.24 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed at $4.68 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways though the contract posted a new low of $4.52 3/4. Resistance is at the recent high of $5.00.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.74 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with an initial target of $4.97.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed at $5.36 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents for the week. Despite the second consecutive lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Resistance remains at $5.53 1/2, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.55 through the contract low of $5.02 3/4. Weekly stochastics are below the overbought level of 80%.

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