Technically Speaking

Commodities Nearing a Possible Turn

Source: DTN ProphetX

A look at the attached S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (SPGSCI.X) weekly chart shows the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend is still in place, though nearing a possible bearish turn. Last week saw the SPGSCI.X post a bullish outside week before closing higher at 347.98. Next resistance is pegged at 363.54, a level that marks the 50% retracement of the previous downtrend from 458.68 through the low of 268.41. However, note that weekly stochastics (bottom study) are above the overbought level of 80% increasing the indexes vulnerability to a bearish crossover signaling a change in secondary momentum.

Before one gets to bearish though, it needs to be recalled that the major (long-term) trend remains up (March 18 post, "The End of the Death March in Commodities"). As we near the end of April the major trend continues to grow more bullish with an initial upside target of 384.95.

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