Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.24 higher at $32.18. The market established a spike reversal on its weekly chart, in conjunction with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Both would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. The minor (short-term) trend on the daily chart also turned up last week with a bullish crossover by stochastics Thursday.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.77 higher at $32.19. The market established a spike reversal on its weekly chart, in conjunction with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Both would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. The minor (short-term) trend on the daily chart also turned up last week with a bullish crossover by stochastics Thursday.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.14cts higher at $0.9957. The market established a spike reversal on its weekly chart, in conjunction with a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Both would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. The minor (short-term) trend on the daily chart also turned up last week with a bullish crossover by stochastics Friday.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 6.26cts higher at $1.0838. The spot-month contract posted a spike reversal on its weekly chart, though unlike the oil contracts did not see a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics. Daily stochastics did establish a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% signaling the minor (short-term) trend has turned up. This could lead to a bullish turn in the secondary (intermediate-term) trend as well.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.3cts higher at $1.393. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, last week's bullish close put the spot-month contract in position to establish a new 4-week high. A rally through the previous mark of $1.405 would signal the market has moved into a secondary uptrend. The minor (short-term) trend on the market's daily chart remains up.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 3.9cts higher at $2.139. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up the minor (short-term) trend remains down. The consolidation pattern on the market's daily chart looks to be a bear flag, indicating a resumption of the minor downtrend could take the spot-month contract to a test of next support at $1.954. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $1.685 through the high of $2.495. Daily stochastics have not crossed below the oversold level of 20% as of last Friday's close.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.00cts higher at $0.3075. The market looks to have established a two-week reversal given last Friday's settlement near the weekly high of $0.3100 following the previous Friday's settlement near the new low of $0.2525. The market could establish a clearer signal of moving to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with a move to a new 4-week high above $0.3575.

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