Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.34, unchanged for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down. The NCI.X tested support between $3.29 and $3.23, with its low of $3.28, before rallying. Weekly stochastics remain neutral-to-bearish near the oversold level of 20%. National average basis firmed last week with the NCI.X calculated about 23 1/2 cents under the close of the March futures contract. The previous Friday saw basis calculated at 25 cents under.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The March contract closed 1.75cts lower at $3.57. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the March contract looked to establish a spike reversal on its weekly chart. Weekly stochastics are in position to post a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% in the coming weeks. The minor (short-term) trend turned up last week, possibly supplying the momentum for a similar turn by the secondary trend.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.83, unchanged for the week. Dec 2016 corn looks to have posted a bullish spike reversal on its weekly chart after establishing a new contract low of $3.74 1/2. Weekly stochastics are nearing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The minor (short-term) trend turned up last week with an initial target near $3.91 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.21, up 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial support at the major (long-term) double-bottom low near $8.09. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis firmed last week with the NSI.X calculated 43 3/4 cents under the close of the March futures contract. The previous week saw basis calculated at 45 1/2 cents under.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The March contract closed 1.00ct higher at $8.65 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways between the recent high of $9.11 1/2 and contract low of $8.47. March beans are holding near support at $8.62 1/4. Weekly stochastic are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed 4.25cts lower at $8.78 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways between the recent high of $9.26 1/2 and contract low of $8.50. Next support is pegged near $8.75 1/2. Weekly stochastic remain neutral-to-bearish.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.36, up 11 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up as the SR.X established a bullish reversal on its weekly chart. Next resistance is at the 4-week high of $4.49. National average basis strengthened with the SR.X calculated 42 cents under the close of the March Chicago futures contract. The previous week saw a national average basis of 44 1/2 cents under.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed 7.00cts higher at $4.90 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up as the futures contract established a bullish spike reversal after posting a new low of $4.69 1/4. Weekly stochastics also established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, confirming the signal by the futures contract.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.13, up 5 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up as the HW.X established a bullish reversal on its weekly chart. Having closed at its weekly high the HW.X is also in position to establish an island bottom if it can gap higher Monday and hold the gap for the balance of the week.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed 3.50cts higher at $4.92 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up after the futures contract established a bullish reversal on its weekly chart. Stochastics also posted a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% confirming the uptrend. Next resistance is at the 4-week high of $5.16 1/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.80, up 13 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Next support is at the major (long-term) low of $4.44 from September 2015. Weekly stochastics are bearish. National average basis strengthened last week with the SW.X calculated at 20 3/4 cents under the close of the March futures contract. The previous week saw national average basis at 26 1/4 cents under.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed 3.50cts higher at $5.27 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up after the futures contract established a bullish spike reversal after posting a new low of $5.15 1/4. Weekly stochastics also established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, confirming the change in trend. Next resistance is at the 4-week low of $5.48.

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