Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.47 lower at $47.99. Despite weekly stochastics that remain bullish the secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned sideways. Support is at the 4-week low of $46.93, then the major (long-term) low of $42.23. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $54.05.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.66 lower at $44.60. The market looks to have established a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with initial trendline support at $44.73 this week, then the 4-week low of $43.97, and finally the major (long-term) low of $37.75. Resistance is at the 4-week high of $50.92. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, but could turn neutral if short-term selling continues to be seen.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 4.22cts lower at $1.4544. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down, with support at the major (long-term) low of $1.3745. Weekly stochastics remain neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 2.44cts lower at $1.3036. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Last week saw the spot-month contract test support at the major (long-term) low of $1.2265. Some of the pressure early in the week came from continued noncommercial long-liquidation, with Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group reducing their net-long futures position by 5,472 contracts to 55,1654. Weekly stochastics remain in single digits indicating a sharply oversold situation.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 5.6cts higher at $1.580. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend could start to strengthen after last week's bullish outside range by the spot-month contract. Initial resistance remains at $1.664, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $2.265 through the low of $1.292. Weekly stochastics are bullish.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 14.4cts lower at $2.286. The secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends are down with the spot-month contract moving to its lowest level since June 2012. Weekly and monthly stochastics are both well below 20% indicating the market is oversold, though this has done little to generate increased buying interest.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.25cts lower at $0.3925. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with support between $0.4026 and $0.3688. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $0.2675 through the high of $0.4700. Weekly stochastics are bearish.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, October 20.

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