Sort & Cull

I don't know about you, but I didn't have this one on my 2026 cattle market bingo card. Even before the new year came, the industry was well-aware the tightest supplies of this cycle were going to be in the first quarter of 2026 and prices stood an excellent chance of rallying to the highs of 2025, if not making a new high-water mark of their own.

While the market most certainly did achieve great success early in January and February of 2026, this unusual, counter-seasonal break wasn't what most anticipated for the first week of March. But with an enormous amount of pressure seeming to only grow heavier on the market, traders seemed to reach their breaking point last week as they momentarily elected to wave their white flag and let the cattle contracts scale lower.

Through last week, February live cattle fell $2.57, April live cattle fell $9.78, March feeder cattle tumbled $12.60, and April feeder cattle dived $13.85 by Friday's close. Similar pains were seen in the fed cash cattle market as Southern live cattle traded at mostly $244, which is $5 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $382 to $383, which is $5 to $6 lower than the prior week's weighted average.

With pressures heightened amid the newly emerging war between the United States and Iran, to closer-related issues such as the potential union strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, the market has more than enough stress to cause a sizeable headache.

But the questions shift to: What happens next? Will the war in Iran last for only a couple of weeks like the news lines in Venezuela did? Or will this be an ongoing issue for the unforeseen future? Will the union workers strike in Greeley? Or will they be able to resolve the issue and avoid a lapse in production? All this leads us to the greatest question concerning the cattle complex: Is the spring high in? Or will the market regain its footing and attempt to challenge resistance both in the futures and in the cash?

While I wish I had a crystal ball and concrete answers for you to help us through challenges like these, I don't. But as always, I encourage you to remain levelheaded through bobbles like these in the market, and to strategize a number of different plans for the upcoming year for your business. You never know when a hurdle is going to be thrown before you.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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