Fundamentally Speaking

Last month's USDA Small Grain Summary reported the 2025 US winter wheat yield at 54.9 bushels per acre (bpa), above the year ago 51.7 bpa and the second highest yield ever next to the record 55.3 bpa yield seen in 2016.

This chart shows the 2024 and 2025 winter wheat yields for the top 18 growing states and the U.S. in bushels per acre on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis is the percent those yields deviated from the 25-year trend.

The darker blue columns are those states that saw a record winter wheat yield in 2024 while the darker orange columns are those states that saw a record winter wheat yield in 2025.

The U.S. yield, estimated at 54.9 bpa, is 5.7% above the 25-year trend vs. the year ago 51.7 bpa which was 0.1% above.

In 2024, CO, NC and TX had the worst yields relative to trend while a variety of states including IL, IN, MO, NE OK, OR and SD had yields at least double digits above trend.

This past season the worst yields relative to trend were really just NC again and SD with CA, ID, KS, MO, OK and TX had yields at least double digits above trend.

Last year there were just two states with record yields (MO and SD), and just three this year (IL, MI and again MO).

Finally, attesting to the very good winter wheat yields seen nationwide, just four states (MT, NE, SD and WA) had yields this season below those posted in 2024 with Idaho the highest at 10 bpa better than last year and South Dakota faring the worst with 2025 yields 13 bpa down from last season.

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