Fundamentally Speaking

The lack of key USDA data has made the price discovery process more difficult, while the on and off again trade negotiations with China have added to the price volatility and increased the "unknown factor".

Still, after last year's price declines last October, farmers will take what they can get as the bulk of their crops have been stored in hopes of higher prices down the road or maybe a government payout, and heightened expectations that a period of trade dissent with China may result in large agricultural sales to the world's largest commodity importer.

This chart shows the net change for November soybeans and December corn futures for the month of October for the past 25 years.

Plotted on the left-hand axis is the net price change in dollars per bushel while reported on the right-hand axis is the price change in percent terms.

November soybeans finished the month at $10.99 3/4, up 98 cents (9.8%), the highest for each measure since 2014 and the loftiest price seen for the spot soybean contract since July 2024.

This comes after the year ago 75-cent (7.1%) decline last October, the second largest decline since 2000.

As for corn, the December contract finished the month at $4.31 1/2, up 16 cents (3.8%).

Last year in October, the December 2024 contract was down 14 cents (3.3%), the first October tumble since 2017.

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