Fundamentally Speaking

2014 & 2015 Soybean Yields, % of Trend

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

For the second year in a row the U.S. set record in soybeans as far as yields and production.

This year's yield as estimated in the November crop production report is 48.3 bushels per acre (bpa) topping the prior all-time peak of 47.5 bpa set last year.

Similar to a piece we did in corn, this graphic shows the actual soybean yield in bpa for the top 18 soybean growing states and the U.S. including last year's final estimate and this year through the November crop report figures.

Also reported is the 2014 yields as a percent of their respective 25 year trend (1989-2013) and the 2015 yields as a percent of their respective 25 year trend (1990-2014).

Last year only MN had a 2014 yield below their 25 year trend at 96.7% of trend with LA doing the best at 31.1% above trend.

Ironically this year LA fared the worst of the top states, coming in at 89% of trend, one of three states that had below trend yields including NC at 99.5% of trend and ND at 97.9% of trend.

Top performers include AR at 18.9% above trend and KY at 110.8% of trend with some top states also well above trend.

The fact that there were three states below trend last year instead of the one in 2014 helps explain why the new record yield is still only 8.2% above the 25 year trend vs. last year's figure of 8.3% above trend.



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