Fundamentally Speaking

2014 & 2015 Corn Yields, % of Trend

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

2014 was a record corn year in terms of production and yields in the U.S. though it appears that this year was not that far off.

The USDA reported that the 2015 national corn yield was 169.3 bushels per acre (bpa), second highest ever next to last year's 171.0 bpa. As we have noted a number of times, while crop conditions were uniformly good to excellent throughout the Corn Belt in 2014, the Eastern Corn Belt did endure their share of problems this past growing season.

This graphic shows the actual corn yield in bpa for the top 18 corn growing states and the U.S. including last year's final estimate and this year through the November crop report figures.

Also reported is the 2014 yields as a percent of their respective 25 year trend (1989-2013) and the 2015 yields as a percent of their respective 25 year trend (1990-2014).

Last year only the Upper Midwest had problems with excess spring rains and an early fall freeze resulting in IA, MN and ND the only three of the top 18 states having below trend yields.

This year the three main Eastern Corn Belt states of IL, IN and OH had below trend yields along with NC and ND so five of the 18 states had below trend yields which is still very good.

Note the 2014 U.S. yield was 7.7% above trend vs the 2015 yield 4.2% above trend.

In terms of highs and lows last year MO came in 40.8% above trend with MN the laggard at 88.3% of trend while this year's top performer is KY at 19.6% above trend with IN trailing the pack at 93.7% of trend.



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Freeport IL
11/13/2015 | 12:47 PM CST
It appears we calculate our percentage of trend line differently than you. Your way might be more correct. Our data had an interesting find. Only one state had a record high percentage of trend line yield in 2015. That state was Michigan. The USâ?™s 25 year high was in 2004. The 18 states combined average had a high in 1994 and six states had a record high in 1992. (The non 18 states had a good year in 2004 to push National levels to a record in 2004.) So it seems there is room, from a historic view, for a higher national yield than we saw in 2015. The multi-state and National yield had their lows in 2012. Freeport, IL