Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

There is a lot of hand wringing about what appears to be the slowest pace of corn plantings ever.

This is due to the persistent cold and wet weather that plagued much of the Corn Belt during April and has continued into May.

Given reports of rapid seedings being made this week with the best planting window opening up over the past few days, we feel months from now the heavy April rains will be seen more as a blessing than a curse.

Recall as recently as March the Palmer Drought Severity maps were showing many areas in the central part of the country still having severe or even extreme drought.

Now after heavy and even record amounts of moisture over the past six weeks there has been a miraculous recovery in subsoil moisture reserves and this is just what the doctor ordered.

The accompanying graphic shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the top corn and soybean producing states from the end of December 2012 to the end of last month.

The improvement in this index is literally amazing in a number of states. Look how the big I states of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa have gone from severe or extreme levels of drought to neutral or even excess wetness status. Also seeing that in such states as MO and WI.

In fact of the 21 top corn and soybean producing states, only two OH and PA saw deterioration in their PDSI readings, which is reflective of dryness settling into the Northeast part of the country.

Note that there were only five states with positive PDSI readings at the end of December but at the end of April, twelve states had such a designation.

Clearly, there are still problems at the latest U.S. Drought monitor shows an alarming situation in much of the country west of the Mississippi and key row crop states that remain under the gun include the Plains states of SD, NE, KS, and TX.

(KA)