DTN Oil Update
Oil Prices Fall as OPEC Flags Q3 Market Surplus
VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil futures softened Wednesday, Nov. 12, morning as a crude glut flagged by OPEC overshadowed bullish sentiment bolstered by hopes of an imminent end to a record-long U.S. government shutdown.
Reversing course after advancing for three straight sessions, the NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery fell $0.94 to $60.10 bbl, and ICE Brent for January delivery retreated $1 to $64.16 bbl.
December RBOB gasoline futures slipped $0.0052 to $2.0068 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures were down $0.0467 to $2.5290 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.204 points to 99.520 against a basket of foreign currencies.
In its latest monthly oil market report published this morning, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries saw the global oil market in oversupply in the third quarter as U.S. production beat expectations. This marked a drastic pivot in the producer group's view, whose forecasts are usually more bullish than those of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oil futures extended their decline following the publication of the report.
The IEA in its 2025 World Energy Outlook published today, meanwhile, saw global oil demand peaking in 2030 before entering a gradual decline under its Stated Policies Scenario, which accounts for current government policies and announced ambitions. The Paris-based energy watchdog, however, drastically changed its outlook under the more conservative Current Policies Scenario, which considers only laws already enacted. Under this trajectory, global oil demand continues to rise, reaching 113 million bpd by 2050, with no peak occurring before mid-century.
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook for November is scheduled for noon EST release today, followed by IEA's November Oil Market Report on Thursday, Nov. 13.
The U.S. House of Representatives is to convene later on Wednesday to vote on a Senate bill to reopen the federal government after a record-long 43-day shutdown.
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