The attached chart shows the five-year average move (2013-2017) in nearby March futures over the course of the month of January for selected grains and oilseeds, as well as the spot Canadian dollar.
Both soybeans and canola tend to reach lows in early January, which leads to their respective seasonal moves into late spring/early summer. Over the past five years, both soybeans and canola have moved higher over the course of the month of January in three of five years, with soybeans averaging a modest increase of .3% and canola rising an average of .5%.
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Of the commodities selected, spring wheat tends to show weakness in the first month of the year, declining in three of the five years in question for an average loss of 2.4% over the five years. This is consistent with DTN's seasonal studies that point to spring wheat futures tending to drift lower through late February.
Cereals such as oats and corn tend to start the calendar year with a move higher, with March oat futures closing lower in the month of January in two out the past five years, but averaging 1.6% higher overall. Corn futures ended lower in only one of the five years in question, while also averaging a 1.6% gain in price over the five years. This is the beginning of a move into an uptrend, which tends to continue into early June, as seen on DTN's seasonality chart.
The last bar on the chart points to weakness in Canadian dollar trade seen early in the calendar year. Over the past five years, the spot Canadian dollar has settled lower over the month of January in four years, while averaging 2.3% lower. The five-year seasonal average for the spot Canadian dollar shows a weakening trend that continues into early March.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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