Canada Markets

A Look at Week 20 Licensed Wheat Exports

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green bars represent the weekly export shipments of Canadian wheat through licensed facilities, while the blue line represents the weekly volume needed each week in order to stay on track to reach the current export target, both measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the steady pace needed to reach the current 17.2 million metric ton export target, while the red line shows the cumulative exports shipped, with both measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Week 20 licensed wheat exports, with data covering the week ended December 17, or the first 38.5% of the crop year, saw 367,400 metric tons shipped. This is above the previous four-week average and above the 345,000 mt needed this week in order to stay on track to reach the recently revised target of 17.2 million metric tons, as set by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Cumulative 2017/18 shipments total 6.1872 mmt, 761,100 mt or 14% higher than realized in the same 20-week period in 2016/17, while slightly higher than the previous five-year average for week 20.

As seen on the attached chart, 2017/18 cumulative shipments (red line) trails the steady pace need to reach the current AAFC forecast of 17.2 mmt (black line), which was recently revised 900,000 mt higher in their December supply and demand tables. This lags the steady pace needed by 428,185 mt, which takes into account only the movement through licensed facilities. When unlicensed exports and the export of flour are taken into account, this gap will be narrowed.

Over the past five years, an average of 35.4% of total crop-year shipments have been achieved by week 20. This five-year average pace could be used to project 2017/18 exports to reach approximately 17.5 mmt, even higher than current forecast. In 2016/17, week 20 exports through licensed channels accounted for 34.7% of crop year exports, which would point to the potential for even higher exports of approximately 17.8 mmt.

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