Canada Markets

A Look at DTN 360 Poll Results

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
When asked how the removal of the cash ticket deferral option would affect grain markets, 14% of respondents showed concern of more unpredictable delivery patterns, 7% of respondents indicated increased storage risk, while 66% suggested all of the above, which included four potential market impacts. Thirteen percent of respondents said this move would not affect their operation. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

While DTN welcomes feedback on a regular basis, the DTN 360 Poll is a weekly chance for readers to share their thoughts on a variety of topics that relate to Canadian markets. Here is a look at some of the latest results.

In early April, DTN asked, "What is your opinion of the wheat market in the year ahead?"

-- 34% chose Choice 1 or "I believe we are in for a tough go in the year ahead with large global stocks weighing on the market."

-- 34% selected Choice 2, "I think the smaller United States acreage and potential cuts in acreage elsewhere will help boost prices over time."

A smaller percentage of 22% of respondents indicated Choice 3; "I believe that opportunities for certain qualities, such as high protein, will allow for favorable pricing opportunities."

A much smaller percentage of 5% indicated that they don't grow wheat, while 5% indicated that they are uncertain.

Of course, this was an early season look at the market. Markets can quickly change, given the weather challenges faced since then for the HRW wheat crop: the dry conditions on the southern Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, planting delays in northern Saskatchewan and Alberta along with the low-protein being harvested in the early Southern Plains HRW wheat crop. Responses across the Prairies and the single respondent in North Dakota were mostly dispersed across the first three options, ranging from bearish to cautious optimism.

In mid-April, the following question was posed in the weekly poll:

"Canada's federal government has initiated a consultation period to discuss a proposed elimination of the cash ticket deferral option for wheat, oats, barley, rye, flax and canola. How do you see such a move affecting grain markets?"

The results of this poll are shown on the attached graphic, which are as follows:

-- 14% responded to Choice 1, or "Delivery patterns would be more unpredictable as producers base marketing decisions on their tax situation and less on the actual market opportunity."

-- 0% responded to Choice 2, or "Grain companies could be less aggressive in forward contracting, perhaps even missing export opportunities."

-- 0% responded to Choice 3, or "Basis risk could increase as grain companies seek levels that will entice sellers."

-- 7% responded to Choice 4, or "Producers could incur increased storage risks as they alter their marketing decisions based on their tax situation."

-- An overwhelming majority of the responses, or 66%, chose Choice 5, which is "All of the above", and

-- 13% chose Choice 6, or "This move would not affect my operation."

This has certainly been a hot-button item with producers and farm groups alike, while the federal government has extended its consultation period until July 24. Input can be provided at consultation_tax_2017@canada.ca.

Late April/early May the following question was asked: "What best describes your views on spring planting in your area?"

Results were heavily weighted to the final three choices, which include:

-- Choice 3: "We expect only minor delays only and will soon be on track." (35%)

-- Choice 4: "Our spring seeding appears to be significantly delayed." (35%)

-- Choice 5: "It looks bad: Our area will be lucky if we get to seed anything this spring!" (14%)

Two-thirds of Manitoba respondents and all of Ontario respondents chose Choice 3, indicating only minor delays. Of the Saskatchewan responses, roughly one-half indicated they were already seeding or would face minor delays only, while 50% of responses chose Choice 4 pointing to significant delays. Two-thirds of Alberta responses were split between Choice 4 and 5, hinting at the challenges faced a month ago with little change since.

In early May, the following question was asked: "What do you think was the most surprising data reported in Statistics Canada's March 31 stocks report?"

Of the potential scenarios presented, the largest responses were seen for:

-- Choice 4: "I expected canola stocks to be reported lower." (34%)

-- Choice 7: "I don't pay attention to this data." (33%)

A smaller response was generated for Choice 1, or "Canada's March 31 wheat stocks (excluding durum) were reported lower than expected" (17%) and Choice 6, "There was no end of surprises in this report." (16%)

The last of the polls covered today was run in mid-May, which asked the question: "What do you think of the Liberals' federal Bill C-49, the Transportation Modernization Act, to regulate Canada's grain movement?"

Despite significant support coming from farm and commodity groups surrounding the work done on this bill, responses from readers appear more hesitant, although the weekly response was lower, given the time of year. Responses ranged across choices that included whether people liked it, did not like it, or were undecided. The largest response was "I am unsure, even though it may affect me." (40%)

Many will need more time to weigh the results of this bill and experience it in action.

**

DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks which crop you believe will require the greatest focus and attention to detail when it comes to price risk management in the upcoming crop year. You can respond to this poll that is found on the lower right side of your DTN Home Page. Thanks to all for their past contributions to weekly polls.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .