Canada Markets

Week 32 Exports as a Percentage of Crop-Year Totals

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the cumulative licensed volumes shipped as of week 32, or March 12, the first 61.5% of the crop year, for selected grains. The brown bars represent AAFC's export targets for the 2016/17 crop year, with bars measured against the primary vertical axis. The yellow line highlights the five-year average volume moved as of week 32 as a percentage of total crop year exports, measured against the secondary vertical axis, while the grey bars represent projected crop year exports based on the historic pace. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The accompanying chart looks at the current pace of export movement for selected grains as compared to the historic pace of movement and what it could mean for 2016/17 crop year exports.

For example, the Canadian Grain Commission recently reported exports of wheat (excluding durum) through licensed facilities as of week 32, or March 12, at 8.157 million metric tons, as indicated by the blue bar. The recently released March supply and demand tables released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada left expected wheat exports unchanged at 16.5 million metric tons for the 2016/17 crop year, as indicated by the brown bar. On average over the past five years, the cumulative week 32 CGC exports represented 55.3% of the final crop-year volumes moved (including unlicensed exports and the export of flour), which is indicated by the yellow line as measured against the right hand vertical axis. This five-year average pace would could signal total crop year exports at 14.749 mmt (grey bar), which is calculated by the week 32 cumulative volumes divided by the average percent of total exports shipped by this time (8.157 mmt/0.553= 14.749 mmt).

Using this logic, the current pace of exports combined with the average movement seen over the remaining 20 weeks of the crop year over the past five years would suggest that the movement of wheat, durum, barley and flax is behind the pace needed to reach current AAFC export targets. This is indicated by the height of brown bars exceeding the height of the grey bars.

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Two crops that point to the potential for 2016/17 exports to greatly exceed current export targets are seen in the data reflecting movement for both canola and dry peas, with grey bars exceeding the brown bars. In the case of canola, week 32 licensed exports have averaged 59.2% of total exports over the past five years. This could suggest total exports reaching 11.1 mmt as compared to the current AAFC estimate of 10 mmt. In the case of dry peas, week 32 licensed exports have averaged 52.7% of total exports, which points to a potential of close to 4.5 mmt exported as compared to the current 3.2 mmt export target. In both cases, the availability of supplies may ultimately have a bearing on the crop-year potential and could have implications for upward revisions in stocks should the pace of exports remain strong.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(AG)

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