Canada Markets

September Canadian Merchandise Trade Data

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Week 12 primary elevator grain stocks were reported at 3.457 million metric tons, the second highest volume reported since Aug. 1 (blue bars), while weekly primary elevator shipments fell to 894,900 metric tons for the week, a six-week low. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Statistics Canada's trade data for September shows the country reaching a record deficit in world trade, spiking from $2 billion in August to $4.1 billion in September. The value of monthly imports reached a record level for the month with prices up 2.4%, while the value of exports was only slightly higher at a .1% increase. Bloomberg points to the spike in imports tied to the delivery of one vessel delivering a single piece of equipment which travelled from South Korea to be used in the oil industry off of the east coast.

The country's total exports (balance of payments, seasonally adjusted) were slightly higher at $43.549 billion, the highest month seen since January. The Farm and fishing products category saw exports reported at $2.0305 billion in September, a four-month low and the weakest September data for this category seen since September 2013.

Here's a look at selected export data for Canadian crops:

Lentil exports in September totaled 299,331 metric tons in September, the largest monthly movement seen since November 2015. Year-to-date movement is reported at 325,756 mt, which is 78.4% of the volume shipped in the same period in 2015 and 10.8% above the five-year average. To date, volumes shipped represent 14.8% of the current AAFC export volume estimate of 2.2 mmt, slightly behind the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Dry pea exports in September were reported at 710,193 mt in September, the largest monthly volume shipped since September 2014. Cumulative movement in the first two months of this crop year totals 1.011 million metric tons, 5.1% higher than the same period in 2015 and 53.3% higher than the five-year average. AAFC's export target is 3.2 mmt, with the volume shipped in the first two months of the crop year representing 31.6% of the target with the data representing 16.7% of the crop year, well ahead of the pace needed to reach the current target.

Mustard exports in September totaled 9,292 mt, a four-month high. Cumulative exports total 17,331 mmt, 90.8% of the volume moved in the first two months of 2015/16 and 88.9% of the five-year average. Current movement is slightly behind the steady flow needed to reach the current export target of 120,000 mt.

Canary seed exports in September totaled 8,674 mt, down from the August volume shipped. Year-to-date, 19,814 mt has been shipped, 4.3% higher than the same period in 2015 while 91.3% of the five-year average. The current AAFC export target is set at 125,000 mt, while the current pace of movement is slightly behind the cumulative volume needed to reach this target.

Chickpea exports fell to 4,783 mt in September, a 16-month low with the crop hit hard by the harvest delays faced in Saskatchewan. Cumulative movement totals 13,888 mt, 91.9% of the volume moved in the same two months in 2015 although are 58.2% higher than the five-year average. The current export target is set at 70,000 mt given tighter carry-in stocks, while the current pace of movement is ahead of the pace needed to achieve this target.

A total of 208,044 mt of oats were reported to be shipped in September, the largest volume shipped since the month of September 2012. Year-to-date, 399,853 mt has been shipped, 32% higher than the volume shipped in the same period in 2015 and 104% higher than the average of the past four years. The current export target for 2016/17 is 2.3 mmt, with the current pace of movement just slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach this target.

Corn exports in September were reported at 37,838 mt, the smallest monthly volume moved in 11 months. This is the first month of Canada's row-crop crop year, with September's volume 214% above the same period in 2015 while 27.4% higher than the five-year average. The current export target set for corn is 1.3 mmt for 2016/17, while the current pace of movement is well behind the pace needed to reach this target.

The month of September saw a total of 172,084 mt of soybeans exported. This volume is 8.6% higher than the same month in 2015 and is 84.7% higher than the four-year average. Most recent AAFC estimates suggest that exports will total 4 mmt in 20167/17, while the volume shipped in September is behind the cumulative volume needed to reach this volume.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks given the costs and benefits of storing grain, what crop do you think will give the best financial return by storing in the 2016/17 crop year? Please feel free to share your thoughts, with the poll found at the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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