Canada Markets

Canada's All-Wheat Exports as of Week 40

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Weekly licensed shipments of Canada's all-wheat (including durum) for week 40 was reported at 531,400 metric tons (green bar), down from the 599,500 mt shipped the same week a year ago (blue bar, secondary vertical axis). Total licensed exports of all-wheat for the 2015/16 crop year are 98.3% of last year's cumulative total for the same period (red line, primary vertical axis), above the current AAFC forecast for an 8.1% drop in export volumes year over year (black line). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

During week 40, or the week ending May 8, which represents the first 77% of the August through July crop year, a total of 531,400 metric tons of all-wheat was exported from Canada, 68,100 mt below the same week in the 2014/15 crop year. This total consists of 498,500 mt of wheat, the highest weekly volume shipped since week 1 of this crop year. Weekly shipments of durum totaled 32,900 mt, the lowest weekly volume shipped since week 5 of this crop year.

Year-to-date, (August through present) 16.461 mmt of licensed all-wheat (including durum) has been exported, which is just 1.7% below the same week last year. This is portrayed on the attached chart by the red line, which shows weekly cumulative all-wheat exports as a percentage of last year's same-week exports, as measured against the percent scale on the primary vertical axis. Since week 20, this percentage has ranged from 96.3% of last year's volume to 100.3% of last year's volume.

This is a combination of 12.7674 mmt of wheat, which is 0.5% higher than the volume moved as of the same week last year, along with 3.6936 mmt of durum, which is 8.5% below year-ago volumes.

The black line on the attached chart shows the relationship between the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's all-wheat export target, currently set at 22 mmt, and last year's total all-wheat exports at 23.940 mmt. The current target of 22 mmt represents an 8.1% drop from 2014/15 levels, although this comes from the April Canadian government supply and demand tables which could see an upward revision in the months to come.

This week's USDA WASDE report saw a 500,000 metric ton upward revision in Canada's all-wheat export forecast to 22.5 mmt. This leaves the country second to the European Union in terms of supplier to the world for the second straight year. The title may not last long, according to USDA's 2016/17 projections. Canada's tight carry-in stocks along with lower acreage results in projected sales of 20 mmt, below Russia at 24.5 mmt and the United States at 23.81 mmt.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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