Thursday's Canada Markets blog marks a fourth and final look at yield trends for major crops. Statistics Canada's Dec. 4 crop production report revealed the country's seventh consecutive record level of soybean production at 6.235 million metric tons, despite a 2.2% drop in harvested acres. Record production was achieved for Quebec on increased yields and lower harvested acres, as well as in Manitoba, with a record acreage and higher yields. Ontario faced a year-over-year drop in production, given lower acres while yield was unchanged from 2014.
The average Canadian yield was reported at 42.4 bushels per acre, above the 40.2 bpa achieved in 2014 although still below the record 43.9 bpa achieved in 2010. The year-over-year change is noted by the green and yellow bars on the attached chart. Quebec achieved a record 47.3 bpa yield, a significant 22% jump from 2014, while the year-over-year average in Manitoba jumped 14.5% to the province's second-highest average yield of 37 bpa. Ontario's provincial average was estimated at 45.5 bpa, unchanged for 2014. Not shown on the chart is Saskatchewan, where the average provincial yield is 24.9 bpa, slightly below the average of the previous two years with Statistics Canada data reporting the province's data for a total of three years.
The lines with markers represents each province's 2014 average yield as a percent of the 1994-through-2013 20-year trend (purple line), while the black line represents the 2015 average yield as a percent of the 1995-through-2014 20-year average. From 2014 to 2015, Canada's yield as a percent of its respective 20-year trend jumped from 97.3% to 101.4%. As indicated on the attached chart, this is largely tied to a year-over-year increase in Quebec, from 96.7% of trend in 2014 to 116.5% of trend in 2015. Manitoba's year-over-year increase also affected Canadian data, although 20-year data is not available.
Using simple trend forecasting tools in Excel to extrapolate the discussed trend, Canada's average yield would be just slightly lower in 2016 at 42 bpa. Quebec's 2016 yield would fall back to trend at 40.6 bpa, while Ontario's average yield would increase slightly to 46.4 bpa.
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