Canada Markets

AGCanada.com points towards record producer deliveries of grain for the month of September, exceeding the September deliveries seen in 2013 during that year's record prairie production. A total of 5.879 million metric tons of the major grains and oilseeds were delivered, which includes record canola deliveries for the month at 2.384 mmt.

As seen on the attached graphic, the rapid pace of deliveries has continued into October, with the week 11 Canadian Grain Commission statistics, as of October 20, suggesting cumulative crop year deliveries of the major grains and oilseeds into licensed facilities at 12.218 mmt, up 4% from 2014 and 22.7% above the five-year average.

Both wheat and durum deliveries into licensed facilities are roughly 3% below 2014 levels although wheat deliveries are 13% above the five-year average while durum deliveries are 10.3% above the five-year average. A total of 4.116 mmt of wheat has been delivered while durum deliveries total 968,400 metric tons.

With oat prices below producers' targets, deliveries are 5% ahead of last year, although just .4% ahead of the five-year average at 502,800 mt.

The last two crops shown indicate both canola and peas being delivered at levels well-above the historical pace. At 4.074 mmt, producer deliveries of canola are 7.3% ahead of 2014 while they are 23.5% above the five-year average for the first 11 weeks since August 1, which represent approximately 21% of the crop year. The canola market has absorbed these volumes while the January contract continues to trade in the upper-half of the range traded over the past 10 weeks.

As well, dry pea deliveries, reported at 1.257 mmt, are just a modest 1.8% above last year's aggressive pace, but 48% above the five-year average. Yellow peas have slipped from average price levels reported for early fall, although they are 19% above year-ago prices. Green peas have remained steady through harvest although they are 10% below year-ago levels.

The aggressive pace of deliveries has not burdened the country system, given a favorable pace of country shipments. Cumulative shipments from licensed country elevators are pegged at 9.525 mmt, down 5.2% from last year, but 17.7% above the five-year average (2010 through 2014).

As well, country stocks are also not problematic. Stocks of all grains reported in country elevators as of Oct. 20 were reported at 3.283 mmt, up 21.2% from the same week in 2014 and 14.6% above the five-year average. Given system capacities reported by Quorum Corporation's weekly Grain Monitor, this would represent 50.8% of the country elevator storage capacity and 78% of the estimated working capacity on the Prairies.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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