Canada Markets

Week 5 Producer Deliveries Ahead of Average

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows cumulative producer deliveries of selected grains into licensed facilities as of Week 5 as compared to 2014, and the 2010-to-2014 average. Deliveries of oats, canola and peas are ahead of both last year and their five-year average volumes, with dry pea deliveries ahead by the widest margin. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The Canadian Grain Commission's Week 5 statistics indicate that cumulative producer deliveries into licensed facilities total 5.1692 million metric tons of all grains between August 1 and September 6, just .3% higher than the same week last year and 27% or 1.1 mmt higher than the five-year average from 2010 through 2014.

Despite the harvest ahead of average, according to provincial crop reports, the attached chart indicates that only cumulative deliveries of oats, canola and peas are ahead of both last year and the five-year average, given the grains selected.

Perhaps the largest signal seen in terms of producer deliveries is the continuation of last year's aggressive pea movement, with producers delivering 986,400 mt in the first five weeks, 147,400 mt higher than the same week last year while close to 410,000 mt above the five-year average.

Canola deliveries as of week 5 are reported at 1.231 mmt, also higher than last year as well as the five-year average. This may lend support to Statistics Canada's recent revisions which boosted 2014/15 carryout well-above pre-report estimates, while also supporting the notion that 2015 production may be well-above Statistics Canada's July estimates.

Of the grains shown, the only grain to see producers deliver less volume than 2014 as well as the five-year average as of week 5 is durum. Cumulative deliveries total 309,800 mt, down from 439,000 metric tonnes reported in 2014 and the five-year average of 342,800 mt. This is despite harvest data which shows both Saskatchewan and Alberta approaching the 50% complete mark as of last week.

Switching to cumulative shipping data from primary elevators, week 5 volumes shipped are 712,200 mt behind 2014 at 4.063 mmt. On a percentage of total shipments basis, movement of oats, canola and peas have posted increases over last year while both wheat and durum are lower. For example, canola shipping made up 18.9% of the total cumulative volume shipped in the first five weeks of 2015 while now represents 22.4% of the total in 2015. Pea shipping has jumped from 11.6% of the total volume shipped of all grains in 2014 to 15.7% in 2015.

At the same time, wheat volumes have slipped from 47.3% of all shipments in 2014 to 45.94% in 2015, while durum has slipped from 13.8% to 6.45%.

While this can be viewed as early in the crop year, this data could point to some longer-term implications that will be watched.

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