Canada Markets

Recent Statistics Canada data indicates that 1.015 million acres of the 1.155 ma of winter wheat planted on the Canadian prairies has survived, or 88% of the total. While the same acreage was estimated to have been planted a year prior in the fall of 2012, only 81% was estimated to have survived. The 88% of acres remaining this spring is equal to the 2004 to 2013 10-year average, with the range estimated by Stats Canada from 76% in 2009 to 95% in 2012.

In a Dow Jones interview with Bruce Burnett, a weather and crops analyst with CWB, the crop was described as being "in reasonably good shape." At the same time, concerns were noted that the late spring across the prairies will delay the harvest. The continued pattern which has temperatures below seasonal averages will also further add to the delays.

Of the winter wheat remaining, 415,000 acres or approximately 41% is situated in Manitoba. Manitoba's second provincial crop report dated May 12 indicated that the winter crop continues to be assessed although it may still be early to evaluate the extent of damage to the crop due to winterkill. Cooler-than-normal temperatures this spring have delayed growth along with the ability to assess the crop. Statistics Canada data would suggest a survival rate of 95.4% in Manitoba, the highest of the three Prairie Provinces.

Roughly 43% of the winter wheat acres remaining are found in Saskatchewan, at 435,000 acres. This would reflect the lowest survival rate of the three Prairie Provinces at 82.9%. There are reports of some winterkill across many regions of the province in the province's first crop report dated May 5, although the report suggests that it is still early to evaluate the damage given the late start to the crop.

The remaining 16% of the winter wheat remaining is reported to be in Alberta, or 165,000 acres. The first provincial crop report, dated May 5, suggested that the condition of fall-seeded crops is 69% good to excellent, while some re-seeding will be necessary.

As indicated on the attached chart, acres seeded to winter wheat in the fall of 2013 were viewed as steady at 1.155 ma. This is just slightly above the five-year average of 1 million acres and the 10-year average of 959,000 acres.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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