The Canadian Grain commission released the Week 13 Grain Statistics Weekly report, which covers the first quarter of the 2013/14 Canadian crop year. The weekly CGC report has now been revamped to include imported grains by destination, data for special crops such as lentils and mustard and exports by grade. Past weeks have also been updated to include historical data.
Given ongoing media reports of Canada's lagging grain movement, largely a result of the massive Canadian crop, I thought it would be interesting to look at the CGC's export data as compared to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's export targets from the Oct. 16 Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crop report. The November version of this report may be released soon which may revise targets.
As of week 13, total wheat exports at 4.15203 million metric tonnes is ahead of the steady pace required to meet the 16 mmt target set by AAFC for 2013/14. The quarterly volume required to meet this target is 4 mmt. Year-to-date movement is also 27% ahead of the volume moved as of the same time period in 2012/13. This is far from bullish news, with current forecasts calling for a 3.1 mmt increase in the wheat carryout to 7 mmt, while the possibility exists that production will be increased in the December Statistics Canada report.
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Durum exports as of Week 13, at 1.09338 mmt, is just barely below the 1.125 mmt quarterly movement required to meet AAFC's annual target of 4.5 mmt. Year-to-date shipments are also just slightly below last year's week 13 YTD exports of 1.1214 mmt.
YTD exports for both oats and barley are well below the targeted for the first quarter, assuming a steady pace of shipments over the crop year. As of Week 13, oat exports were reported at 281,730 mt, which is just 51% of the 550,000 mt target for the first quarter, given an annual forecast of 2.2 mmt for oats exports. Canadian rail capacity may be partially behind this slowdown, a scenario which is also supportive for the U.S. oat market. Barley exports for Week 13, at 146,470 mt, are just 25% of the 575,000 mt quarterly targets for barley exports required to meet the annual 2.3 mmt export target. This may prove to be bearish for domestic barley markets. After remaining steady at $185/mt for barley delivered southern Alberta feedlots, the price dipped $1/mt on Friday to $184/mt, largely supported by a lack of producer selling which may lead to further pressure on the market later on.
Canola exports also remain behind target for the first quarter. At 1.71105 mmt of canola shipped in the first 13 weeks, movement remains almost 300,000 mt below the 2 mmt quarterly pace required to meet the 8 mmt export target set by AAFC. Movement is also 17% below the 2.0642 mmt shipped as of the same week one year ago.
Flax exports also fall short of the quarterly pace required to meet the annual export target of 575,000 mt as determined by AAFC. At 41,010 mt, movement is just 29% of the 143,750 mt quarterly pace.
Dry pea exports remain on track and ahead of the quarterly pace required to meet the annual target of 2,750 mmt. Exports, reported at 710,610 mt, are 3.4% ahead of the quarterly pace required to meet target, while well ahead of the 619,100 mt shipped as of the same week in 2012/13.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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