Canada Markets

The recent Canadian Grain Commission release of the July edition of the Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour shows a second year of significant growth in all-wheat and durum exports, as seen on the attached chart. While these exports increased 8.3% from the 2010/11 crop year to the 2011/12 crop year, they grew an additional 9.3% from the 2011/12 crop year to the 2012/13 crop year to 18.672 million metric tonnes.

While this volume represents movement through licensed facilities, a footnote suggests a further 755,916 metric tonnes have been exported to the United States via unlicensed facilities or direct from farms, from August 1 2012 to June 2013.

While this may not be the final export data for the year due to the missing unlicensed shipments data from the month of July, it will be close. As well, wheat flour data includes movement up to the end of June only.

In total, licensed exports of wheat for 2012/13 totaled 14.290 mmt, which represents a 7.1% increase from 2011/12 data. Licensed exports of durum totaled 4.2234 mmt, which was up 18.3% from the previous year. Wheat flour exports actually declined 13.2% to 157,952 mt from the August-to-June data in the 2011/12 crop year.

Canadian exporters have made important strides in the ever-important Asian region, with Chinese imports at 717,900 mt, which is up 90.6% from the previous year, while Indonesia's imports, at 1.2354 mmt are 54% higher than the previous year, Japan's imports at 1.5541 mmt are 47.9% higher and South Korea's imports at 336,300 mt are 52.7% above 2012 imports.

Exports of wheat to the United States also totaled 1.3508 mmt through licensed facilities and 755,916 mmt through unlicensed facilities from August 2012 to June 2013. This total represents an increase of 8.9%.

The largest gains in durum exports were seen into the countries of Morocco, where 792,400 mt were exported which represented an increase of 96%, Algeria, who imported 764,800 mt, up 10.6%, and Belgium, where 342,400 mt were imported for an increase of 189%.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's supply and demand tables are currently calling for 2013/14 all-wheat exports (including flour) are currently pegged at 18.8 mmt, which is on par with 2012/13 but is currently allowing for little growth in exports due to an expected recovery in production in other major growing areas.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(ES)

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