June 25 marks the next release of the Statistics Canada Preliminary Estimates of Field Crop Areas report, where seeded-acre estimates will be revised from the earlier March Intentions report. The U.S. will release a similar report June 28 and next week stands to be an interesting one, especially given the challenges faced throughout the spring on both sides of the border and the impact this may or may not have had on planted acreage of a multitude of crops.
The attached chart indicates the differentials between the actual seeded acreage for the crops selected compared to the June estimate. The red bars indicate the actual seeded acres as compared to the June estimates in 2012, measured in percent, while the blue bars represent the average of the differential between the actual seeded acres compared to the June estimates over the past five years.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT T
For example, the actual seeded acres for spring wheat as reported in November 2012 were 13.73% higher than the acreage reported in the June estimates report. Durum was 8.38% higher and oats were 9.92% higher. Canola acres were lower than estimated in June, down 10.06%.
The smaller blue bars indicate how the data is smoothed over time, with the average differentials much lower indicating smaller swings than seen in the 2012 data. The most accurate results are seen in the soybean acreage, the smallest bars showing on the chart, with the 2012 planted acreage just .5% below the June estimates, while the average over five years is .9% below the June estimates.
This analysis also indicates certain tendencies over time, as indicated by the two bars appearing in the same direction. Examples of this are barley, canola, peas and corn. The chart indicates a tendency to estimate barley, canola and pea acreage too high in June, while corn acres have tended to be under-reported in the June report.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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