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  • This chart highlights the evolution of AAFC's monthly canola export forecasts starting in January 2018 to March 2019 (blue bars), as measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line with markers represents the monthly forecast for ending stocks, measured against the secondary vertical axis. The red bar represents actual exports for 2017-18, while the green bar represents AAFC's forecast for 2019-20. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The situation facing Canada's canola trade with China has become more dire with this month's government supply and demand reports pointing to a sharp cut in expected exports. The March export forecast from AAFC could still prove optimistic given recent activity. New-crop...

  • The red line on the chart represents DTN's National Spring Wheat Index (USD/bushel) that has traded above the National Durum Index since last July (blue line). The green line on the lower study represents the Spring Wheat/Durum spread, which closed at $0.66/bu. USD on Tuesday. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Over the past five years, the spread between DTN's National Durum Index and National Spring Wheat Index in the spring explained the year over year change in seeded acres for each crop 60% of the time on both sides of the border. Current year activity will likely see spring...

  • This chart plots the volume of grain stocks held in Thunder Bay ahead of the opening of the 2019 navigation season. The blue bars represent current week 32 stocks, while the orange bars are the week 32 stocks in 2017-18 and the gray bars represent the three-year average. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Ahead of the opening of the navigation season, we look at stocks of selected grains in store Thunder Bay as a potential hint of what may lie ahead in the way of movement. Stocks of durum and oats are above average, stocks of canola and soybeans are below average, while...

  • Tuesday's Canadian dollar trade exchange with the United States dollar reach its highest level in 12 sessions, although gains were pared. The spot dollar failed at the chart's 20-day and 50-day moving average. The lower-study histogram bars shows noncommercial traders in the Canadian dollar increasing their bearish net-short position for three consecutive weeks as of March 12 data. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The spot dollar finished higher on Tuesday for the first time in four sessions, but failed at technical resistance. Noncommercial traders continue to hold a net-short futures position, while media is focusing on one analyst calling for the loonie to test record lows.

  • Week 32 Canadian Grain Commission shows grain stocks at primary elevators at 4.4 million metric tons, with current stocks (blue bars) higher than the same week in 2017-18 (orange bars) and the five-year average (grey bars) in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. The black line represents the percent of estimated working capacity represented at current levels for each province. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    A combination of increased producer deliveries and a disappointing car-spot in recent weeks has led to increased stocks of grain in-store primary elevators. Week 32 producer deliveries of wheat into primary elevators was the highest reported since week 20.

  • This chart highlights the trend seen in No. 2 Canada Western (CW) oats delivered to Winnipeg, as reported by Manitoba Agriculture. The black line represents the 2018-19 crop year, while 2017-18 data is shown by the grey line, 2016-17 is orange and 2015-16 is blue. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Producer bids for No. 2 Canada Western (CW) oats delivered to Winnipeg have reached a crop-year high in December and January over the past three years. At the same time, there is a wide range of thoughts in terms of how much acres will increase in 2019.

  • This chart shows prospective Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 as exports vary by 250,000 metric ton across the x-axis and average yield varies by 0.5 bushels per acre on the vertical y-axis. The yellow-shaded area represents combinations of yield and exports that would lead to a reduction in stocks, relative to the current AAFC forecast, while the green-shaded area represents combinations that would lead to an increase in stocks, relative to the current AAFC forecast. The brown-shaded area represents a combination that equals the February AAFC forecast for the 2019-20 crop year. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    While old-crop global stocks are being revised higher, some forecasts are already pointing to increasing levels of global production for the 2019-20 crop year. This study looks at the effect that various average yields and exports have on Canadian stocks for the upcoming crop...

  • The continuous active canola chart shows prices consolidating on Monday, following four consecutive lower weekly closes. The second study points to the May/July spread at minus $8.30 per metric ton (mt), representing a bearish level relative to full carry. The histogram on the lower study shows noncommercial traders holding the largest net-short position held in data spanning to the beginning of the crop year. (DTN ProphetX chart)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The continuous active canola chart shows four consecutive weekly losses, although prices have shown only modest losses on Monday to consolidate near the middle of last week's range. Supportive commercial activity has limited losses tied to speculative selling.

  • The blue bars represent the cumulate volume of producer canola deliveries in excess of the cumulative demand as of week 31 (crush plus exports), with the 2018-19 amount calculated at a negative 10,600 metric tons, with deliveries failing to meet demand for the first time during this eight-year period. Despite a 20% year-over-year increase in licensed wheat exports as of week 31, producer deliveries have exceeded this demand by 2.357 million metric tons. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Producer deliveries of canola as of week 31 have fallen short of reaching the reported demand (crush plus exports) for the first time in the eight years shown. Wheat export demand is higher year-over-year, while deliveries minus exports are higher in 2018-19.

  • The current pace of Canada's cumulative licensed wheat exports (blue line) continues to remain on a rapid pace, with week 30 statistics showing cumulative exports at 10.440 mmt, up 17.4% from the same period in 2017/18 (red line) and 18% above the five-year average (green shaded area). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canada's wheat exports remain well ahead of the 2017-18 and five-year average pace, with year-over-year increases seen for numerous countries, including the largest buyers, China and Indonesia. The five-year average pace of movement would indicate that crop year exports will...

  • The vertical bars represent the daily number of railcars not moving as reported by the AG Transport Coalition, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The orange line with markers represents each day's percent change from the previous 30-day moving average, measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    February statistics show a sharp rise in both the railcars reported not moving as well as showing a sharp increase in the number of cars cancelled. The cold weather pattern facing the Prairies in February is forecast to linger well into the month of March.

  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's February supply and demand estimates had an overall effect of lowering ending stocks for all Principal Field Crops by 68,000 metric tons (green bar), while this report has some significant month-over-month revisions shown for select crops, as seen by the blue bars. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Revisions in AAFC's February supply and demand tables led to significant changes in 2018-19 ending stocks for a small number of crops, with bullish changes noted for barley, oats and peas, while 2018-19 ending stocks for both soybeans and canola were revised higher.

  • Statistics Canada reported the January canola crush at 829,640 metric tons, down from December's volume (blue bars), while higher than the same month in 2018 (orange bar) and three-year average (black line). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Statistics Canada's canola crush volume for January was down from the previous month, although the cumulative pace of crush remains ahead of the pace needed to achieve the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada crush target. Exports remain a different story.