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  • The Thunder Bay shipping season began March 24 with the arrival of a grain vessel. Grain stocks in store Thunder Bay terminals as of week 33, or March 19, are reported at 557,300 metric tons, a three-year low, with wheat stocks as of week 33 showing the largest decline over the past two years. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The 2017 shipping season in Thunder Bay began March 24 with the arrival of a vessel to load grain bound for the United States. Shippers are desperately looking for a rebound in activity in 2017, while grain stocks as of week 33 are at a three-year low.

  • The first three bars represent the trend in China's soybean production, consumption and imports for 2014/15 through 2016/17, along with projections for 2017/18, as released by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. The next three bars represent the same data for canola. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has estimated China's consumption of all oilseeds to grow faster than domestic production, with the pace of imports expected to grow on a year-over-year basis. Soybean imports are expected to grow 3.5% to a record 89 million metric tons...

  • The blue bars represent the cumulative licensed volumes shipped as of week 32, or March 12, the first 61.5% of the crop year, for selected grains. The brown bars represent AAFC's export targets for the 2016/17 crop year, with bars measured against the primary vertical axis. The yellow line highlights the five-year average volume moved as of week 32 as a percentage of total crop year exports, measured against the secondary vertical axis, while the grey bars represent projected crop year exports based on the historic pace. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Cumulative licensed exports as of week 32 signal that movement of oats, canola and peas could exceed current AAFC targets for the crop year, while current estimates for wheat, durum, barley and flax seem high given the average relationship between week 32 movement and total...

  • The May spring wheat contract took a month to move from its February high to March low, but has gained nearly half of it back in three days. Support was tested at the contract's 200-day moving average at $5.40 1/4 on Thursday, while a test of resistance is close by between $5.50 and $5.50 3/4/bu. As seen in the lower study, light commercial buying helps support Thursday's higher close. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Old-crop spring wheat futures have made some positive technical moves this week, with some support stemming from commercial demand. A further move on Friday could lead to a bullish signal on the weekly chart, while should prices hesitate at resistance, further old-crop sales may...

  • The May canola contract hit two-month lows on Wednesday, breaching support, which likely triggered further technical selling. Selling has intensified this week, with the third study showing daily volume higher this week than seen late last week. The lower study shows the May/July spread, viewed as a measure of commercial trader sentiment, weakening this week to the lowest level seen since Jan. 4. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Old-crop canola broke various levels of support on Wednesday, one of which is the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern. This can have measuring implications, pointing to a potential minimum price objective of $486.70 according to technical analysis theory.

  • This chart contains miscellaneous grain handling statistics as of week 31 or the week ending March for all principal crops. Producer deliveries are based on deliveries into licensed facilities, shipments are from prairie primary elevators, exports are based on shipments from licensed facilities and stocks represent primary elevator stocks. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Producer deliveries of all principal crops are reported at a record pace as of week 31, while both shipments from primary elevators and exports are close to last year's pace. A common theme throughout the data is a huge increase in canola volumes helping offset the...

  • DTN's Five-Year Canola Price Probability chart speaks to the resilience of old-crop prices, with last week's close of $522.90/metric ton falling into the top 30% of the range of prices traded during this week over the past five years. This is marked by the red bar, as compared to the blue bar that marks the price, which represents the top 33% of the price range traded. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The May contract finished in the top one-third of the weekly range traded over the past five year in last week's trade, while soybeans finished in the lower one-third. Monday's trade resulted in a correction, with weakness in soybean oil acting as a drag on canola prices.

  • This chart shows India's wheat fundamentals, with USDA estimates for production, use and ending stocks measured against the primary vertical axis while imports, the black line with markers, is measured against the secondary vertical axis. The 2016/17 imports are estimated to be the highest volume in 10 years. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The March USDA report saw the estimate for India's 2016/17 wheat imports increased to 5.5 million metric tons, by far the largest volume imported since 2006/07. Stocks have fallen for four consecutive years, and while still near 10 mmt, the need to import quality stocks is...

  • Price on the December spring wheat daily chart broke support (blue line) on March 3, opened higher but finished even lower on March 6 and has continued the slide on Tuesday and Wednesday. Support lies at $5.60 1/2/bu., the 67% retracement of the move from the December low to the February high. The brown line on the third study represents the Dec 2017/March 2018 spread, which has weakened to minus 12 1/4 cents, a sign of growing commercial bearishness. The lower study shows the new crop HRS/HRW spread at 50 1/2 cents, attempting to stabilize near its weakest level since August. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    New-crop December wheat has recently broken trend line support and has been under pressure for five consecutive sessions, searching for a bottom. Australia's government has released five-year projections pointing to major exporters such as Canada, the United States and...

  • This chart highlights the August-through-January exports for select Canadian crops (September-through-January in the case of corn and soybeans) as compared to the same period in 2015/16 (blue bars), compared  to the five-year average (red bars) and as a percent of the 2016/17 export target set by AAFC. (DTN graphic by Anthony Greder)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Statistics Canada pointed to canola exports as contributing to Canada's third consecutive monthly trade surplus in January, while agri-food exports achieved a record month. Here is a look at January trade data for select crops.

  • The blue bars represent the cumulative exports of Canadian canola to China in the first six-months of 2015/16, while the red bars represent the trend seen in 2016/17 with total exports in the first six months of the crop year only 74,600 metric tons behind the same period last year. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canola exports to China started the crop year at a troubling pace although recent CGC data shows volumes almost caught up to the record pace of 2015/16 by the end of January or the first six months of the crop year. A Canola Council of Canada report has concluded that...

  • The Canadian dollar will likely show losses of over 1 cent in the first two days of trade this week, after breaking support last Monday from an upward-sloping trend line in place since a Dec. 28 low. Tuesday's move reached a five-week low. The lower study shows the weekly CFTC data in histogram form, with Feb. 21 data showing investors holding the largest bullish net-long futures position in the loonie since May 2016 at 24,584 contracts. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The Canadian dollar reached its lowest level in nearly five weeks on Tuesday, despite recent favorable inflation data coming from Canada. Investors have been increasing their net-long futures position for the loonie, as they have for crude oil. President Donald Trump's speech to...

  • November canola lost $2.60/metric ton in Monday's trade, although bounced back to the mid-point of the session's range after reaching the contract's lowest point since Jan. 16. Trade held above support in the $493.50 to $494.80/mt range, while the Nov/Jan spread (lower-study) is reported at minus $5.60/mt and can be viewed as a neutral response overall by commercial traders. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    November canola held above support on Monday, after reaching the lowest level seen since mid-January. Recent estimates show the stocks to use calculation for 2016/17 and 2018/19 will reach single digits, not seen since 2011/12 and 2012/13 when crop year average prices were...