Ag Weather Forum

A string of multiple clipper systems will move through the northern tier of the country this week, bringing variable weather conditions that will feel very messy. The strongest of these clippers will move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, Dec. 9, then across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday, Dec. 10. Heavy snow, strong winds, and another burst of cold air are in the forecast with this system.

The system is moving onshore across British Columbia on Monday, Dec. 8. The low-pressure center will move into southern Alberta tonight, then southeast across the border early on Tuesday. The low will move into Wisconsin on Tuesday night, then take a turn east-northeast across the Great Lakes and Northeast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

This clipper is different from others we have seen so far this winter in that it will have a good difference in temperature to work with. That difference in temperature will be the driver for a much stronger system. We have seen many clippers since November. Most of them have been riding on the edge of some warmer air to the south, but that warmer air was still largely below normal. This time, that won't be the case as temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s Fahrenheit in the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and 30s and 40s Fahrenheit in the Midwest on Wednesday. Minneapolis, Minnesota, has not seen a day above the freezing mark since Nov. 25, two days before Thanksgiving. If the storm track is just far enough north, the city will finally break a two-week string of below-normal temperatures.

On the northern side of the low track, there will be a band of heavy snow of roughly 4 to 8 inches. That band is looking to set up from southeast Saskatchewan through northern and central Minnesota, east through central Michigan, and then along the U.S.-Canada border area through the Northeast. With warmer temperatures to the south of this band, there will likely be a very sharp cutoff of seeing very little snow and rain to the south and very heavy snow just to the north.

The large gradient in temperature will also mean the low-pressure center will be deep. Winds on the backside of the storm system will increase significantly. That will not overlap the snow too much, but gusts in the Northern Plains are forecast to exceed 60 mph, which may cause damage to structures and power lines. As the system continues east, those winds will not be nearly as strong; more likely in the 30- to 40-mph range across the Midwest and Northeast. Some breezy winds with the snow may cause some drifting, but blizzard conditions are generally not expected.

Those strong winds will be pulling down another round of cold air from northwestern Canada. Though it will not be the coldest pool of arctic air that will impact the country this week, temperatures will still fall below zero Fahrenheit across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That cold air moving over the Great Lakes will produce another round of intense lake-effect snow for Wednesday and Thursday, Dec. 10-11. Some areas could see more than 12 inches of additional snow after the main snow band leaves, coming to those areas that are prone to the heaviest snows across northern Michigan, and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The coldest air the country will see this week comes behind another clipper roughly 48 hours later. Along with more heavy snow potential, this burst of cold air may break some records across the North-Central states as forecasts are calling for temperatures to fall 20-30 degrees below normal for the Northern Plains and Midwest. High temperatures may not break above zero degrees F on Friday in the Northern Plains and Saturday in the Upper Midwest. Though a significant drop in temperature is likely elsewhere, the anomalies will not be as intense, though the Northeast will also see temperatures about 15-20 degrees below normal.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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